GS Paper I — Q16
"The centre of global trade is gradually shifting from the Atlantic region to the Indo-Pacific region." Examine this statement…
"The centre of global trade is gradually shifting from the Atlantic region to the Indo-Pacific region." Examine this statement. (Answer in 250 words) 15 marks
हिंदी में प्रश्न पढ़ें
“वैश्विक व्यापार का केन्द्र अटलांटिक प्रदेश से हिन्द-प्रशान्त (इंडो-पैसिफिक) प्रदेश की ओर धीरे-धीरे स्थानान्तरित हो रहा है।” इस कथन का परीक्षण कीजिए। (उत्तर 250 शब्दों में दीजिए)
Model answer
Drafted with AI by UPSC Answer Check against this question's marking rubric, to the 250-word length. UPSC does not publish answers for Mains — this is one way to score well, not an official key. How we build rubrics and answers.
Since the Industrial Revolution, global commerce centred on the Atlantic, anchored by the US–Europe trade axis and transatlantic capital flows. Over recent decades, geo-economic gravity has shifted towards the Indo-Pacific.
Drivers of the Shift China's export-led industrialisation and the rapid growth of ASEAN and India have made the region the main hub of global production and consumption. Its sea lanes through chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea carry a large share of seaborne trade, and nine of the world's ten busiest container ports lie in East and Southeast Asia. Post-pandemic supply-chain reconfiguration, especially 'China+1', has deepened intra-regional trade, institutionalised through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP, in force 2022), the world's largest trade bloc, China's Belt and Road Initiative, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and strategic groupings such as the Quad.
India's Role Through rising trade, targeted Free Trade Agreements and its SAGAR outlook, expanded in 2025 into MAHASAGAR, India links its growth to maritime security across the Indian Ocean.
A Relative Shift The Atlantic system has not collapsed. The US–EU relationship remains unmatched in high-value technology trade, services and cross-border investment, while Red Sea disruptions since late 2023 have exposed the vulnerability of Asia–Europe routes.
Thus, the Indo-Pacific now leads in trade volume and manufacturing, but the change is a gradual rebalancing rather than an eclipse of the Atlantic.
How this answer will be evaluated
Framework: GS1 Geography/Geopolitics
What earns full marks: Analyzes the 'why' of the shift with specific data and institutional examples.
Evaluation rubric
Each sub-part is marked on its own, against the marks and word limit printed on the paper.
- The answer Examine the claim that the centre of global trade is shifting from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific: drivers and evidence of the shift, the Atlantic's continuing strengths, and a judgment on its extent. 15 marks · 250 words
examine— intro → how/why with reasoning → evidence → conclusion
Must cover
- Atlantic dominance: US–EU trade, investment and financial hubs
- Indo-Pacific rise: China/ASEAN/India manufacturing, markets and port traffic
- Mechanisms: supply-chain reconfiguration (China+1) and connectivity (BRI, sea lanes, chokepoints)
- Institutional shift: RCEP, CPTPP, IPEF vs. stalled transatlantic deals (e.g., TTIP)
- Judgment: relative, gradual shift rather than an Atlantic eclipse
Loses marks
- Narrating history without analyzing the 'shift'
- Ignoring the Atlantic region's current status
- Vague generalizations without specific regional examples
Earns more
- Specific data (e.g., Asian share of container port traffic or global GDP)
- Role of maritime chokepoints (Malacca, South China Sea, Red Sea/Suez)
- Impact of US–China trade tensions on trade flows
- India's role (SAGAR/MAHASAGAR, FTAs, ports)
Extra mark
- Sketch map showing trade route shift
- Reference to specific trade index (e.g., UNCTAD)
What "Examine" is asking you to do
Test the proposition the question puts to you and return a finding on how far it holds. Examine stems carry a claim, or ask whether something has happened, and expect evidence weighed both ways before the extent is stated — often with remedial measures attached.
Structure that answers it
Restate the claim as the question frames it → evidence that supports it → evidence that undercuts it → the conditions under which it holds → verdict on how far it stands
Where marks are lost
Stopping at description. An examination has to reach a finding, and “examine with justification” means the extent must be stated, not implied.
Practice this exact question
Write your answer and it is marked point by point against the model answer above — what you covered, what you missed, what you got wrong.
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