Paper II — Q2
(a) A company gives on-the-job training to its salesmen, which is followed by a test. The company is considering whether there is…
A company gives on-the-job training to its salesmen, which is followed by a test. The company is considering whether there is any relationship of test scores and sales performance made by the ten salesmen during last one year, and also whether the company should terminate the services of any salesman who does not perform well in the test:
| Test Score | 50 | 60 | 58 | 47 | 50 | 33 | 65 | 43 | 46 | 68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales ('000) | 48 | 65 | 50 | 48 | 55 | 58 | 63 | 48 | 50 | 70 |
Give your comment whether the company should terminate the services of any salesman who does not perform well in the test. 15 marks
A law graduate student randomly guesses at nine multiple-choice questions in All India Bar Examination. There are four possible answers for every question. However there is only one correct answer. Assuming that all questions are independent to each other, find the possibility that the student chooses six correct answers. 15 marks
For conducting Third Semester Practical Examination, the Chemistry department of a university affiliated college requires 10, 12 and 7 units of three chemicals X, Y and Z respectively. The chemicals are available in two boxes—box A and box B. Box A contains 3, 2 and 1 unit of X, Y and Z respectively and costs ₹ 300. Box B contains 1, 2 and 2 units of X, Y and Z respectively and costs ₹ 200.
Find how many boxes of each type should be purchased by the department so that the total cost is minimal by formulating the problem in linear programming problem and solve it through graphical method. 18 marks
Comment on the sensitivity analysis. 2 marks
हिंदी में प्रश्न पढ़ें
एक कंपनी अपने सेल्समैनों को नौकरी का प्रशिक्षण देती है और फिर एक परीक्षा लेती है। कंपनी यह विचार कर रही है कि क्या पिछले एक साल में दस सेल्समैनों द्वारा बिक्री निष्पादन एवं परीक्षा अंक में कोई सम्बन्ध है और क्या किसी सेल्समैन की परीक्षा में अच्छा प्रदर्शन न करने पर सेवा समाप्त करनी चाहिए:
| परीक्षा अंक | 50 | 60 | 58 | 47 | 50 | 33 | 65 | 43 | 46 | 68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| बिक्रय ('000) | 48 | 65 | 50 | 48 | 55 | 58 | 63 | 48 | 50 | 70 |
आप अपनी टिप्पणी दीजिए कि क्या कंपनी को किसी सेल्समैन की परीक्षा में अच्छा प्रदर्शन न करने पर सेवा समाप्त करनी चाहिए। 15
कानून का एक स्नातक विद्यार्थी अखिल भारतीय विधि (बार) परीक्षा में नौ बहुविकल्पी प्रश्नों पर बेतरतीब ढंग से अनुमान लगाता है। हर प्रश्न के चार संभावित उत्तर हैं, तथापि केवल एक ही सही उत्तर है। यह मानते हुए कि सभी प्रश्न एक-दूसरे से स्वतंत्र हैं, विद्यार्थी के छः सही उत्तर चुनने की संभावना ज्ञात कीजिए। 15
एक विश्वविद्यालय के सम्बद्ध महाविद्यालय के रसायनशास्त्र विभाग में तृतीय सेमेस्टर की व्यावहारिक परीक्षा के संचालन के लिए तीन रसायन X, Y एवं Z के क्रमशः 10, 12 एवं 7 इकाइयों की जरूरत है। ये रसायन दो तरह के बक्से—बक्सा A और बक्सा B में उपलब्ध हैं। बक्सा A में X, Y और Z के क्रमशः 3, 2 और 1 इकाई उपलब्ध है तथा इसकी कीमत ₹ 300 है। बक्सा B में X, Y और Z के क्रमशः 1, 2 और 2 इकाइयाँ उपलब्ध हैं और इसकी कीमत ₹ 200 है।
इस समस्या का सूत्रीकरण रैखिक प्रोग्रामिंग (लिनियर प्रोग्रामिंग) समस्या से करके ज्ञात कीजिए कि विभाग को न्यूनतम कुल लागत पर हर प्रकार के कितने बक्से खरीदने पड़ेंगे। इसका हल ग्राफिकल विधि से कीजिए। 18
संवेदनशीलता विश्लेषण पर टिप्पणी कीजिए। 2
Model answer
Drafted with AI by UPSC Answer Check against this question's marking rubric, to the expected length. UPSC does not publish answers for Mains — this is one way to score well, not an official key. How we build rubrics and answers.
(a) Using Karl Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficient, let X = test score and Y = sales ('000). For n = 10: ΣX = 520, ΣY = 555, ΣX² = 28076, ΣY² = 31395, ΣXY = 29339. Means: X̄ = 52, Ȳ = 55.5. r = (nΣXY − ΣXΣY) / √[(nΣX² − (ΣX)²)(nΣY² − (ΣY)²)]. nΣXY = 293390, ΣXΣY = 288600, so numerator = 4790. nΣX² − (ΣX)² = 280760 − 270400 = 10360. nΣY² − (ΣY)² = 313950 − 308025 = 5925. Denominator = √(10360 × 5925) = √61,383,000 = 7834.73. r = 4790/7834.73 = 0.6114, i.e. r = 479/√613830 ≈ 0.611.
This is a moderate positive relationship; r² = 0.374, so the test score explains about 37.4% of the variation in sales. For n = 10, the 5% two-tail critical r ≈ 0.632; here r = 0.611, so it is not statistically significant at 5%. Also, a salesman with test score 33 had sales 58, showing poor test performance does not necessarily mean poor sales. Hence the company should not terminate any salesman solely because of poor test performance. The test may be used for training, counselling, probation, and re-testing, along with actual sales records.
(b) This is a binomial distribution problem. Let X = number of correct guesses. Here n = 9, p = 1/4, q = 3/4. P(X = 6) = C(9,6)(1/4)⁶(3/4)³. C(9,6) = C(9,3) = 84. P = 84 × (1/4)⁶ × (3/4)³ = 84 × 27/4⁹ = 2268/262144 = 567/65536 ≈ 0.00865. So the probability is 567/65536 ≈ 0.865%, assuming independent questions and constant p = 1/4.
(c)(i) Let x = number of boxes of type A and y = number of boxes of type B. The LPP is: Minimize C = 300x + 200y subject to 3x + y ≥ 10 (chemical X) 2x + 2y ≥ 12, i.e. x + y ≥ 6 (chemical Y) x + 2y ≥ 7 (chemical Z) x ≥ 0, y ≥ 0; x, y integers.
Graphical method: the boundary lines are: 3x + y = 10: intercepts (10/3, 0), (0, 10) x + y = 6: intercepts (6, 0), (0, 6) x + 2y = 7: intercepts (7, 0), (0, 3.5).
The feasible region lies above all three lines. Key intersections: 3x + y = 10 and x + y = 6 give 2x = 4, so x = 2, y = 4. Check Z: 2 + 2(4) = 10 ≥ 7. Feasible. C = 300(2) + 200(4) = ₹1400. 3x + y = 10 and x + 2y = 7 give x = 13/5, y = 11/5, but x + y = 24/5 = 4.8 < 6, so not feasible. x + y = 6 and x + 2y = 7 give y = 1, x = 5. Feasible. C = 300(5) + 200(1) = ₹1700. Other boundary points: (0,10) gives C = ₹2000; (7,0) gives C = ₹2100.
The minimum occurs at (2, 4). Check: X = 3(2) + 1(4) = 10; Y = 2(2) + 2(4) = 12; Z = 1(2) + 2(4) = 10 ≥ 7. Therefore, the department should buy 2 boxes of A and 4 boxes of B, with minimum cost ₹1400.
(c)(ii) Sensitivity analysis studies how changes in costs or requirements affect the optimum. Here X and Y constraints are binding, while Z has surplus 10 − 7 = 3 units and zero shadow price. From dual/complementary slackness, with Z slack, shadow prices are ₹50 per extra unit of X and ₹75 per extra unit of Y. Thus small increases in X or Y raise minimum cost, but up to 3 extra units of Z cost nothing. The optimum (2, 4) lies where the X and Y constraints meet, so it stays optimal while the cost ratio cA/cB lies between the slopes of those constraints, 1 and 3; with cB = ₹200, the cost of box A can range from ₹200 to ₹600. If cost coefficients or requirements change beyond such ranges, the optimal mix changes.
How this answer will be evaluated
Framework: null
What earns full marks: Accurate calculations, clear graphical solution, and logical statistical interpretation.
Evaluation rubric
Each sub-part is marked on its own, against the marks and word limit printed on the paper.
- (a) Test relationship between test scores and sales for ten salesmen; comment on terminating poor test performers. 15 marks
comment— context → arguments both sides → judgment → close
Must cover
- Sums: ΣX 520, ΣY 555, ΣX² 28076, ΣY² 31395, ΣXY 29339
- Pearson r = 4790/√(10360×5925) ≈ 0.611; r² ≈ 0.374
- Significance: critical r (df 8, 5%) ≈ 0.632 or t ≈ 2.19 < 2.306 → not significant
- Conclusion: do not terminate solely on test score; use test for training/probation with actual sales records (e.g., score 33 with sales 58)
Loses marks
- Arithmetic errors in r
- Recommending termination without statistical support
Earns more
- Regression line of sales on score
- Rank correlation as check
Extra mark
- Scatter plot
- (b) Probability of exactly six correct answers out of nine with random guessing (p = 1/4). 15 marks
calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation
Must cover
- Binomial model with n = 9, p = 1/4, q = 3/4, independence
- P(X = 6) = C(9,6)(1/4)^6(3/4)^3
- C(9,6) = 84; value = 2268/262144 = 567/65536
- ≈ 0.00865 (0.865%)
Loses marks
- Using p = 1/2
- Computing 'at least six' instead of 'six'
Earns more
- Interpretation of the small probability
- Conditions for binomial
Extra mark
- P(X ≥ 6) as extension
- (c)(i) Formulate the chemicals LPP and solve it graphically (18 marks). 18 marks
calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation
Must cover
- Minimise C = 300x + 200y s.t. 3x + y ≥ 10; 2x + 2y ≥ 12; x + 2y ≥ 7; x, y ≥ 0
- Graph of the three constraint lines with feasible region above them
- Corner points (0,10), (2,4), (5,1), (7,0) with costs ₹2000, ₹1400, ₹1700, ₹2100
- Optimum: 2 boxes of A and 4 of B at ₹1400; verification of each chemical requirement
Loses marks
- Wrong inequality direction
- No graph or corner-point evaluation
Earns more
- Infeasible intersection (13/5, 11/5) rejected
- Integer solution noted
Extra mark
- Iso-cost line shown
- (c)(ii) Comment on sensitivity analysis (2 marks). 2 marks
comment— context → arguments both sides → judgment → close
Must cover
- Meaning: effect of changes in coefficients/RHS on the optimum
- Binding constraints X and Y; Z slack by 3 units with zero shadow price
- Shadow prices ₹50 (X) and ₹75 (Y) per unit
- Range of optimality: 1 ≤ cA/cB ≤ 3
Loses marks
- Generic definition only
Earns more
- Dual value equals ₹1400
Extra mark
- Range of feasibility for RHS
What "Solve" is asking you to do
Choose the method, then carry it through to a final answer. Identifying what kind of problem this is and why that method applies is the first thing marked; a correct figure arrived at invisibly earns almost nothing.
Structure that answers it
Given data and what is required → method chosen, with the reason it applies → set-up (equation, circuit, free body, trial balance) → working, step by step → answer with units and any condition of validity
Where marks are lost
Doing the middle steps mentally and writing only the result. In mathematics papers, a further loss comes from giving a decimal where the exact value in surds or fractions was wanted, or from skipping the justification a part explicitly asks for.
Practice this exact question
Write your answer and it is marked point by point against the model answer above — what you covered, what you missed, what you got wrong.
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