Management 2021 Paper II 50 marks Solve

Q2

(a) (i) 'A' can hit a target 4 times in 5 shots, 'B' 3 times in 4 shots and 'C' twice in 3 shots. Calculate the probability : (A) 'A', 'B', 'C' all may hit the target. 2 marks (B) 'B' and 'C' may hit the target, but 'A' may not hit it. 2 marks (C) 'C' and 'A' may hit the target, but 'B' may not hit it. 2 marks (ii) A decision problem has been expressed in the following payoff table : | States of Nature | Alternatives | | | |---|---|---|---| | | A₁ | A₂ | A₃ | | E₁ | 190 | 186 | 182 | | E₂ | 164 | 162 | 166 | | E₃ | 142 | 144 | 174 | Which alternative will be selected if the following criterion is used ? (A) Maximax criterion 3 marks (B) Maximin criterion 3 marks (C) Hurwicz's criterion 3 marks (Assume degree of optimism is 0·7) (b) (i) "Decision Support System (DSS) and Management Information System (MIS) are very helpful for managers in taking decisions." Comment and support your answer. 5 marks (ii) How can DSS be differentiated from MIS ? 5 marks (iii) What are the components of DSS ? 5 marks (iv) What are the similarities and dissimilarities between data-driven and document-driven DSS ? 5 marks (c) (i) A firm is considering replacement of an equipment, whose first cost is ₹ 4,000 and the scrap value is negligible at the end of any year. Based on experience, it was found that the maintenance cost is zero during the first year and it is ₹ 1,000 for the second year. It increases by ₹ 300 every year thereafter. (A) When should the equipment be replaced if the interest rate is 0% (zero percent) ? 5 marks (B) When should the equipment be replaced if the interest rate is 12% ? 5 marks (ii) "Inventory Control is a rational process in which decision-making is often done irrationally." Explain. 5 marks

हिंदी में प्रश्न पढ़ें

(a) (i) 'ए' किसी लक्ष्य पर 5 में से 4 बार निशाना लगा सकता है, 'बी' 4 में से 3 बार एवं 'सी' 3 में से 2 बार निशाना लगा सकता है । प्रायिकता की गणना कीजिए : (A) 'ए', 'बी', 'सी' तीनों निशाना लगा सकते हैं । 2 अंक (B) 'बी' और 'सी' तो निशाना लगा सकते हैं, पर 'ए' चूक सकता है । 2 अंक (C) 'सी' और 'ए' तो निशाना लगा सकते हैं, पर 'बी' चूक सकता है । 2 अंक (ii) निम्नलिखित भुगतान सारणी में एक निर्णय समस्या को व्यक्त किया गया है : | प्रकृति की स्थितियाँ | विकल्प | | | |---|---|---|---| | | ए₁ | ए₂ | ए₃ | | ई₁ | 190 | 186 | 182 | | ई₂ | 164 | 162 | 166 | | ई₃ | 142 | 144 | 174 | यदि निम्नलिखित मापदण्ड उपयोग किए जाते हैं, तो कौन-सा विकल्प चयनित होगा ? (A) मैक्सिमैक्स मापदण्ड 3 अंक (B) मैक्सिमिन मापदण्ड 3 अंक (C) हरविक्ज़ मापदण्ड 3 अंक (यदि आशावाद का परिमाण 0·7 माना जाए) (b) (i) "प्रबन्धकों द्वारा निर्णय लेने में निर्णय सहायता प्रणाली (डी.एस.एस.) एवं प्रबन्ध सूचना प्रणाली (एम.आई.एस.) बहुत उपयोगी है।" टिप्पणी कीजिए एवं अपने उत्तर के समर्थन में तर्क दीजिए । 5 अंक (ii) डी.एस.एस. एवं एम.आई.एस. में कैसे अंतर किया जा सकता है ? 5 अंक (iii) डी.एस.एस. के अवयव क्या हैं ? 5 अंक (iv) डेटा-चालित एवं दस्तावेज़-चालित डी.एस.एस. के बीच क्या समानताएँ एवं असमानताएँ हैं ? 5 अंक (c) (i) एक प्रतिष्ठान किसी उपकरण को प्रतिस्थापित करने पर विचार कर रही है, जिसकी प्रथम लागत ₹ 4,000 है एवं वर्षांत में स्क्रैप मूल्य नगण्य है । अनुभव के आधार पर यह पाया गया कि इस उपकरण की रखरखाव लागत प्रथम वर्ष में 0 तथा द्वितीय वर्ष में ₹ 1,000 है । तदुपरान्त यह प्रति वर्ष ₹ 300 से बढ़ती है । (A) यदि ब्याज दर 0% (शून्य प्रतिशत) हो, तो उपकरण को कब प्रतिस्थापित करना चाहिए ? 5 अंक (B) यदि ब्याज दर 12% हो, तो उपकरण को कब प्रतिस्थापित करना चाहिए ? 5 अंक (ii) "माल (इन्वेंट्री) नियंत्रण एक तर्कसंगत प्रक्रिया है जिसमें अक्सर निर्णय तर्कहीन रूप से लिए जाते हैं।" समझाइए । 5 अंक

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Directive word: Solve

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How this answer will be evaluated

Approach

This is a multi-part numerical and theoretical question requiring precise calculations and conceptual explanations. Allocate approximately 35% time to part (a) probability and decision theory calculations, 40% to part (b) DSS/MIS conceptual answers, and 25% to part (c) equipment replacement and inventory control. Begin with clear step-by-step calculations for probabilities and payoffs, then structure theoretical parts with definitions, distinctions, and practical illustrations, concluding with synthesized insights on managerial decision-making.

Key points expected

Part (a)(i): Correct calculation of joint probabilities for independent events - P(A)=4/5, P(B)=3/4, P(C)=2/3; all hit = 0.4, B&C hit only = 0.1, C&A hit only = 0.133
Part (a)(ii): Application of decision criteria - Maximax (A₁=190), Maximin (A₃=166), Hurwicz (A₁=175.6, A₂=173.4, A₃=174.4 → select A₁)
Part (b)(i)-(iv): Clear distinction between DSS and MIS; DSS components (data, model, dialogue); comparison of data-driven vs document-driven DSS with examples
Part (c)(i): Equipment replacement analysis - zero interest: replace at year 5 (min average cost ₹1,400); 12% interest: use present worth analysis for optimal replacement
Part (c)(ii): Explanation of inventory control paradox - rational models (EOQ, ABC) vs irrational behavioral factors like panic buying, supplier pressure, or managerial biases

Evaluation rubric

Dimension	Weight	Max marks	Excellent	Average	Poor
Concept correctness	25%	12.5	All probability calculations use correct formulas for independent events with proper complement rules; decision criteria applied accurately with correct payoff selections; replacement analysis uses proper average cost method and present worth factor at 12%; DSS/MIS definitions align with Gorry-Scott Morton or Sprague frameworks; inventory explanation cites specific behavioral biases	Most calculations correct but minor arithmetic errors in probability products or Hurwicz weighted average; decision criteria identified but payoff values slightly off; replacement timing approximate; DSS/MIS distinction present but definitions generic; inventory explanation mentions EOQ without behavioral critique	Fundamental errors in probability rules (treating as mutually exclusive); wrong criterion-application (confusing maximax/maximin); ignores interest in replacement or uses simple average; conflates DSS with MIS or omits key components; inventory answer purely descriptive without paradox explanation
Framework citation	15%	7.5	Explicitly cites Simon's decision-making typology (programmed/non-programmed) for DSS relevance; references Anthony's hierarchy (strategic/tactical/operational) to position MIS vs DSS; mentions Keen and Scott Morton's DSS definition; uses Harris EOQ or Wilson formula for inventory; cites Terborgh or discounted cash flow theory for replacement	Implicit use of frameworks without naming theorists; mentions 'structured vs unstructured decisions' without Simon attribution; describes DSS components without citing Sprague/Carlson; replacement method correct but no theoretical grounding; inventory models mentioned without origin	No identifiable framework; random jargon without theoretical basis; confuses financial appraisal methods; DSS described as 'computer system' without academic foundation
Case / Indian example	15%	7.5	Illustrates DSS with Indian examples like NIC's Decision Support System for agriculture or ISRO's BHUVAN for spatial decisions; MIS example from SBI's PRIDE or railway reservation system; inventory irrationality with COVID-19 medicine hoarding or onion price volatility; equipment replacement from CPWD or Indian Railways rolling stock policy	Generic examples like 'banking sector' or 'manufacturing company' without specificity; mentions 'Indian Railways' without linking to replacement policy; DSS example could be any software; inventory mentions 'retail stores' without Indian context	No Indian examples; purely theoretical treatment; or inappropriate examples (e.g., citing foreign ERP systems for MIS without adaptation)
Multi-perspective analysis	25%	12.5	For DSS/MIS: contrasts technical, managerial, and organizational perspectives; for inventory: balances mathematical optimization with behavioral economics (prospect theory, anchoring bias); for replacement: compares deterministic vs stochastic models; for decision criteria: evaluates optimism-pessimism spectrum and notes Hurwicz limitation (arbitrary alpha)	Two-sided view present but underdeveloped - notes DSS helps decisions without critiquing over-reliance; mentions inventory costs without behavioral dimension; replacement analysis mechanical without sensitivity consideration; decision criteria listed without comparative evaluation	Single perspective only - purely technical or purely descriptive; no critical evaluation of limitations; accepts Hurwicz criterion uncritically; inventory answer one-dimensional
Conclusion & recommendation	20%	10	Synthesizes quantitative and qualitative parts into coherent managerial insight - emphasizes that DSS enhances but doesn't replace judgment; recommends hybrid inventory systems combining ABC with vendor-managed inventory; notes that replacement decisions require periodic review of cost parameters; explicitly links decision criteria choice to risk appetite	Brief summary of findings without integration; restates main answers; generic conclusion like 'DSS is useful'; no explicit recommendation on criterion selection	Missing or abrupt ending; conclusion contradicts body; no recommendation despite 'suggest' or 'comment' directives; purely numerical ending without interpretation

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