Paper II — Q1
(a) A train is scheduled to arrive at a station at a random time between 09:00 AM and 09:30 AM. The actual arrival time is…
A train is scheduled to arrive at a station at a random time between 09:00 AM and 09:30 AM. The actual arrival time is equally likely to be any moment within this interval.
Define a suitable probability density function (PDF).
What is the probability that the train will arrive before 09:13 AM ?
Find the expected arrival time and the variance of the arrival time.
Given that the train has not arrived by 09:11 AM, what is the expected arrival time ? 10 marks
Determine the required sample size for estimating the true weight cereal container from a population of N = 5000.
Based on the past records variance of weight is 121 grams and this estimate should be within 2·5 grams of the true average weight with 99% confidence.
Will there be a change in the size of the sample if we assume population to be infinite ? If so, explain by how much ? (Table enclosed) 10 marks
A manufacturing facility specializing in Sheet Metal Production has implemented a Statistical Quality Control Program to monitor and improve process performance. As a part of this initiative, an Engineer has recorded the number of visible surface defects identified on 20 sequential metal sheets, each representing one production unit. The data collected during this inspection phase are given below :
[Table with Sheet No. 1-20 and Defect Counts: 5, 6, 4, 4, 6, 7, 0, 6, 5, 3, 1, 4, 5, 3, 6, 4, 3, 1, 3, 4]
Using the above information :
Determine the Center line (CL), Upper control limit (UCL) and Lower control limit (LCL).
Plot the appropriate Control Chart and interpret the result. 10 marks
A Tech Solutions is a mid-sized IT consulting company specializing in automated HR and payroll systems for small business. The company has successfully digitized most of its operations, relying heavily on its internal computer systems for payroll processing and report generations. However, despite its automation efforts, the computer system has experienced periodic failures. Over the past 20 months, the computer system has broken down as indicated in the table below :
Each breakdown results in an average loss of ₹4500/- due to time delay and technical service expenses. As a preventive measure, company is considering a monthly service contract for preventive maintenance. If they sign up for the contract, the average number of breakdowns is expected to decrease to 1 per month, and the contract would cost ₹3300/- per month.
Based on the given information, advise that the company should go for contract for preventive maintenance or not ? 10 marks
Critically analyse the advantages of E Governance for Government, Public and Business giving suitable examples. 10 marks
हिंदी में प्रश्न पढ़ें
एक ट्रेन 09:00 AM से 09:30 AM के बीच यादृच्छिक समय पर एक स्टेशन पर आने वाली है । वास्तविक आगमन समय इस अंतराल के भीतर किसी भी क्षण होने की समान संभावना है ।
उचित संभाव्यता घनत्व फलन (पीडीएफ) परिभाषित कीजिए ।
09:13 AM के पहले ट्रेन के आने की क्या संभावना है ?
अपेक्षित आगमन समय और आगमन समय का अंतर बताइए ।
यह देखते हुए कि ट्रेन 09:11 AM तक नहीं आई है, अपेक्षित आगमन का समय क्या है ? 10 marks
N = 5000 आबादी में से अनाज के कंटेनर का सटीक वजन जानने के लिए आवश्यक नमूना आकार निर्धारित कीजिए ।
पिछले रिकॉर्ड पर आधारित वजन का परिवर्तन 121 ग्राम है । यह आकलन सही औसत वजन के 2·5 ग्राम के अंदर 99% भरोसे के साथ होना चाहिए ।
अगर हम अनंत आबादी मान लें, तो क्या नमूने के आकार में परिवर्तन होगा ? अगर हाँ, तो कितना होगा, समझाइए । (सारणी संलग्न है) 10 marks
शीट मेटल उत्पादन में विशेषता वाली विनिर्माण सुविधा ने प्रक्रिया प्रदर्शन को अनुश्रवण एवं सुधार के लिए सांख्यिकी गुण नियंत्रण कार्यक्रम अमल किया है। इस पहल के एक हिस्से के रूप में एक अभियंता ने, 20 अनुक्रमिक धातु शीट जो कि प्रत्येक एक उत्पादन इकाई का प्रतिनिधित्व करता है, दृश्यमान सतह दोषों की संख्या दर्ज की है। निरीक्षण के दौरान एकत्र किए गए आँकड़े नीचे दिए गए हैं :
[Table with Sheet No. 1-20 and Defect Counts: 5, 6, 4, 4, 6, 7, 0, 6, 5, 3, 1, 4, 5, 3, 6, 4, 3, 1, 3, 4]
उपर्युक्त जानकारी का उपयोग करते हुए :
केन्द्र रेखा (सीएल), ऊपरी नियंत्रण सीमा (यूसीएल) और निचली नियंत्रण सीमा (एलसीएल) का निर्धारण कीजिए।
उपयुक्त नियंत्रण चार्ट अंकित कीजिए और परिणाम की व्याख्या कीजिए। 10
A Tech Solutions एक मध्यम आकार की आई टी परामर्श फर्म है जो लघु व्यापार के लिए मानव संसाधन एवं वेतन प्रणालियों में विशेषज्ञता रखती है। कंपनी ने अपने परिचालन में अपने आंतरिक कंप्यूटर सिस्टम पर बहुत अधिक निर्भर करते हुए वेतन भुगतान की प्रक्रिया और रिपोर्ट बनाने का सफलता पूर्वक डिजिटलीकरण कर लिया है। तथापि इसके स्वचालन प्रयासों के बावजूद कंप्यूटर सिस्टम को समय-समय पर विफलताओं का अनुभव हुआ है। पिछले 20 महीनों में नीचे दिए तालिका में बताए गए आंकड़ों के अनुसार कंप्यूटर सिस्टम खराब हुआ है :
हर व्यवधान समय में देरी और तकनीकी खर्च के कारण औसतन ₹4500/- नुकसान होता है। कंपनी निवारक उपाय के रूप में निवारक रखरखाव के लिए मासिक सेवा अनुबंध पर विचार कर रही है। अगर कंपनी अनुबंध पर हस्ताक्षर करे तो व्यवधान की औसत संख्या एक हर महीने होने की उम्मीद है और अनुबंध का खर्च ₹3300/- हर महीने होगा।
दी गई जानकारी के आधार पर सलाह दीजिए कि कंपनी को इस निवारक रखरखाव के लिए अनुबंध करना चाहिए या नहीं ? 10 marks
सरकार, जनता और व्यापार में ई गवर्नेंस के लाभों का उपयुक्त उदाहरण देते हुए आलोचनात्मक विश्लेषण कीजिए । 10
The figure this question refers to, in words
The question paper is a scan and the diagram did not survive as text. This is the figure as read from the original page — every component, value and label — so the question can be worked from the text below.
(c) Table with two rows. Header row: 'Sheet No.' followed by columns numbered 1 through 20. Second row: 'Defect Counts' with values: 5, 6, 4, 4, 6, 7, 0, 6, 5, 3, 1, 4, 5, 3, 6, 4, 3, 1, 3, 4.
(d) Table with two columns. Left column header: 'Number of Breakdowns'. Right column header: 'Number of months that Breakdown occurred'. Rows: 0 -> 4; 1 -> 8; 2 -> 6; 3 -> 2.
Model answer
Written by UPSC Answer Check against this question's marking rubric, to the expected length. UPSC does not publish answers for Mains — this is one way to score well, not an official key.
(a)(i) Let X be the arrival time measured in minutes after 09:00 AM. Since the arrival time is equally likely anywhere from 0 to 30 minutes, X has a continuous uniform distribution on [0, 30]. The probability density function is: f(x) = 1/30, for 0 ≤ x ≤ 30 f(x) = 0, otherwise. This is valid because f(x) ≥ 0 and ∫₀³⁰ (1/30) dx = 1.
(a)(ii) Using the PDF, P(X < 13) = ∫₀¹³ (1/30) dx = [x/30]₀¹³ = 13/30 = 0.4333 approximately. Final answer: P(arrival before 09:13 AM) = 13/30 ≈ 0.4333, i.e. 43.33%.
(a)(iii) For a continuous uniform distribution on [a, b], E[X] = (a + b)/2 and Var(X) = (b − a)²/12. Here a = 0, b = 30. E[X] = (0 + 30)/2 = 15 minutes after 09:00 AM. So expected arrival time = 09:15 AM. Var(X) = (30 − 0)²/12 = 900/12 = 75 minutes². Standard deviation = √75 = 5√3 minutes ≈ 8.660 minutes. Final answer: E[X] = 09:15 AM, Var(X) = 75 minutes², SD = 5√3 minutes.
(a)(iv) Given that the train has not arrived by 09:11 AM, we condition on X > 11. The conditional distribution of X is uniform on [11, 30]. Its conditional density is: f(x | X > 11) = 1/(30 − 11) = 1/19, for 11 ≤ x ≤ 30. Therefore, E[X | X > 11] = ∫₁₁³⁰ x (1/19) dx = (1/19)[x²/2]₁₁³⁰ = (30² − 11²)/(2 × 19) = (900 − 121)/38 = 779/38 = 20.5 minutes after 09:00 AM. 20.5 minutes after 09:00 AM is 09:20:30 AM. Final answer: expected arrival time = 09:20:30 AM.
(b) We use the finite population sample size formula for estimating a population mean. Given: N = 5000, σ² = 121 grams², so σ = 11 grams, margin of error E = 2.5 grams, confidence level = 99%, so z = 2.58 from the normal table. For finite population: n = N z² σ² / [(N − 1)E² + z² σ²]. First compute: z² σ² = (2.58)² × 121 = 6.6564 × 121 = 805.4244. E² = (2.5)² = 6.25. So, n = 5000 × 805.4244 / [(4999 × 6.25) + 805.4244] = 4,027,122 / [31,243.75 + 805.4244] = 4,027,122 / 32,049.1744 = 125.65 approximately. Since sample size must be rounded up, n = 126 containers.
If the population is assumed infinite, the finite population correction is omitted: n₀ = z² σ² / E² = 805.4244 / 6.25 = 128.8679 approximately. Rounding up gives n₀ = 129 containers.
Thus, assuming the population is infinite increases the required sample size from 126 to 129, i.e. by 3 containers, which is about a 2.38% increase. The finite population correction reduces the sample size because sampling without replacement from a finite population provides more information per observation.
(c)(i) The data are counts of defects per sheet, and the inspection unit is constant. Therefore, the appropriate control chart is a c-chart. Total defects = 5 + 6 + 4 + 4 + 6 + 7 + 0 + 6 + 5 + 3 + 1 + 4 + 5 + 3 + 6 + 4 + 3 + 1 + 3 + 4 = 80. Number of sheets = 20. Center line: CL = c̄ = total defects / number of units = 80/20 = 4 defects per sheet. Upper control limit: UCL = c̄ + 3√c̄ = 4 + 3√4 = 4 + 3 × 2 = 10. Lower control limit: LCL = c̄ − 3√c̄ = 4 − 6 = −2. Since the number of defects cannot be negative, LCL is taken as 0. Final answer: CL = 4, UCL = 10, LCL = 0.
(c)(ii) Plot sheet number 1 to 20 on the x-axis and defect count on the y-axis. Draw horizontal lines at CL = 4, UCL = 10, and LCL = 0. The observed defect counts are: 5, 6, 4, 4, 6, 7, 0, 6, 5, 3, 1, 4, 5, 3, 6, 4, 3, 1, 3, 4. All these points lie between LCL = 0 and UCL = 10. No point falls outside the control limits. There is no clear run or systematic pattern beyond common-cause variation. Therefore, the process is in statistical control. However, the average defect level of 4 defects per sheet may still be high from a quality-improvement perspective. The c-chart indicates stability, not necessarily acceptable quality. Management should investigate whether the center line itself can be reduced through process improvement.
(d) Let X be the number of breakdowns per month. From the table: P(X = 0) = 4/20, P(X = 1) = 8/20, P(X = 2) = 6/20, P(X = 3) = 2/20. Expected breakdowns per month: E[X] = (0 × 4 + 1 × 8 + 2 × 6 + 3 × 2)/20 = (0 + 8 + 12 + 6)/20 = 26/20 = 1.3 breakdowns per month. Without preventive maintenance contract, expected monthly loss: = 1.3 × ₹4500 = ₹5850.
With preventive maintenance contract: Expected breakdowns = 1 per month. Breakdown loss = 1 × ₹4500 = ₹4500. Contract cost = ₹3300 per month. Total monthly cost with contract = ₹4500 + ₹3300 = ₹7800.
Comparison: ₹7800 − ₹5850 = ₹1950 extra per month if the contract is taken. Alternatively, savings from reduced breakdowns = (1.3 − 1) × ₹4500 = 0.3 × ₹4500 = ₹1350, which is less than the contract cost of ₹3300. Final answer: The company should not go for the preventive maintenance contract on purely cost grounds, because it increases monthly cost by ₹1950. It would be advisable only if non-cost benefits such as reliability, goodwill, or reduced disruption exceed ₹1950 per month.
(e) E-governance refers to the use of information and communication technology to deliver government services, information, and transactions efficiently and transparently. Its advantages are significant, but they are not automatic; they depend on inclusion, security, and institutional capacity.
For Government, e-governance improves efficiency by automating routine processes, reducing paperwork, and lowering administrative costs. It strengthens transparency and accountability through online records, audit trails, and real-time monitoring. It also enables data-driven policy formulation and better targeting of welfare schemes. Examples include Direct Benefit Transfer, which reduced leakage and ghost beneficiaries; GSTN, which unified indirect tax administration; GeM, which made public procurement more transparent; and e-Office, which reduced file movement delays. However, poor digital infrastructure and weak data governance can limit these benefits.
For the Public, e-governance provides convenience, speed, and wider access. Citizens can avail services 24×7 without repeated visits to offices. It reduces travel cost, waiting time, and dependence on intermediaries. It also empowers citizens through access to information and faster grievance redressal. Examples include UMANG for multiple government services, DigiLocker for digital documents, CoWIN for vaccination registration, IRCTC for rail ticketing, and online income-tax filing. Yet the digital divide can exclude rural, poor, elderly, and less literate citizens. Language barriers and low digital literacy may create new forms of exclusion.
For Business, e-governance improves ease of doing business. Online registration, single-window clearance, digital payments, and electronic compliance reduce transaction costs and delays. Examples include MCA21 for company registration, Udyam for MSME registration, GST portal for tax compliance, e-way bill for goods movement, and GeM for selling to government. These reduce corruption and improve predictability. However, cybersecurity risks, data privacy concerns, frequent portal changes, and interoperability problems can raise compliance burdens for small firms.
Critically, the advantages of e-governance are real but conditional. It can widen inequality if offline channels are withdrawn too early. It can threaten privacy through excessive data collection and surveillance. It can suffer from algorithmic opacity, exclusion errors, and cyberattacks. Therefore, e-governance should be complemented by digital literacy, robust data protection, cybersecurity, multilingual interfaces, grievance mechanisms, and alternative offline service channels. When inclusive and secure, e-governance transforms governance; when exclusive, it merely digitizes existing inequalities.
What "Solve" is asking you to do
Choose the method, then carry it through to a final answer. Identifying what kind of problem this is and why that method applies is the first thing marked; a correct figure arrived at invisibly earns almost nothing.
Structure that answers it
Given data and what is required → method chosen, with the reason it applies → set-up (equation, circuit, free body, trial balance) → working, step by step → answer with units and any condition of validity
Where marks are lost
Doing the middle steps mentally and writing only the result. In mathematics papers, a further loss comes from giving a decimal where the exact value in surds or fractions was wanted, or from skipping the justification a part explicitly asks for.
How this answer will be evaluated
Approach
Framework: Statistical Quality Control (SQC) and Operations Research. (a) calculate: given > formula > substitution > result with units > interpretation | (b) calculate: given > formula > substitution > result with units > interpretation | (c) calculate: given > formula > substitution > result with units > interpretation | (d) evaluate: criteria > evidence > balanced judgment | (e) analyse: intro > causes > effects > stakeholders/linkages > way forward Full marks: Accurate calculations with clear steps; logical interpretation of data; well-structured analysis with specific examples.
Key points expected
- Define PDF f(x) = 1/30 for 0 < x < 30
- Calculate P(X < 13) as 13/30
- Compute E(X) = 15 and Var(X) = 75
- Apply conditional probability for E(X | X > 11)
- Use z = 2.576 for 99% confidence level
- Apply finite population correction (FPC) formula
- Calculate n for N = 5000
- Compare with infinite population sample size
Evaluation rubric
Each sub-part is marked on its own, against the marks and word limit printed on the paper.
- (a) Solve for PDF, probability, expected time, and variance for a uniform distribution. 10 marks
calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation
Must cover
- Define PDF f(x) = 1/30 for 0 < x < 30
- Calculate P(X < 13) as 13/30
- Compute E(X) = 15 and Var(X) = 75
- Apply conditional probability for E(X | X > 11)
Loses marks
- Using discrete distribution instead of continuous
- Incorrect limits of integration
Earns more
- Correct integration for expected value
- Clear definition of the random variable X
Extra mark
- Graphical representation of the uniform distribution
- (b) Determine sample size for finite and infinite populations with 99% confidence. 10 marks
calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation
Must cover
- Use z = 2.576 for 99% confidence level
- Apply finite population correction (FPC) formula
- Calculate n for N = 5000
- Compare with infinite population sample size
Loses marks
- Using z = 1.96 (95% confidence) instead of 2.576
- Ignoring the finite population correction
Earns more
- Correct substitution of variance (121) and error (2.5)
- Explicit statement of the difference in sample sizes
Extra mark
- Reference to the provided Z-table for 2.576
- (c) Compute control limits for a c-chart and interpret process stability. 10 marks
calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation
Must cover
- Calculate average defects (c-bar) from the 20 sheets
- Determine UCL and LCL using 3-sigma limits
- Plot the c-chart with data points
- Interpret if the process is in statistical control
Loses marks
- Using p-chart or u-chart instead of c-chart
- Incorrect calculation of the average defect count
Earns more
- Correct identification of c-chart as the appropriate tool
- Identification of any points outside control limits
Extra mark
- Discussion of assignable causes for out-of-control points
- (d) Compare costs of breakdowns vs. preventive maintenance contract. 10 marks
evaluate— criteria → evidence → balanced judgment
Must cover
- Calculate average monthly breakdowns from the table
- Compute total monthly cost without contract
- Compute total monthly cost with contract (loss + fee)
- Provide a clear recommendation based on cost comparison
Loses marks
- Ignoring the cost of the contract in the comparison
- Incorrect calculation of the average breakdown rate
Earns more
- Correct calculation of expected loss (4500 * avg breakdowns)
- Logical reasoning for the final decision
Extra mark
- Mention of non-monetary benefits of preventive maintenance
- (e) Critically analyse advantages of E-Governance for three stakeholders. 10 marks
analyse— intro → causes → effects → stakeholders/linkages → way forward
Must cover
- Identify advantages for Government (efficiency, transparency)
- Identify advantages for Public (access, convenience)
- Identify advantages for Business (reduced red tape, market access)
- Provide suitable examples for each stakeholder
Loses marks
- Generic statements without specific examples
- Focusing only on one stakeholder group
Earns more
- Mention of specific initiatives (e.g., e-filing, digital ID)
- Balanced view including potential challenges
Extra mark
- Reference to specific national or international e-gov projects
Practice this exact question
Write your answer and it is marked point by point against the model answer above — what you covered, what you missed, what you got wrong.
Evaluate my answer →More from Management 2025 Paper II
- Q1 (a) A train is scheduled to arrive at a station at a random time between 09:00 AM and 09:…
- Q2 (a) The electrical power demand of TATA Power Corporation from 2018 to 2024, measured in…
- Q3 3.(a) A company has an annual demand of 1600 units for an item, whose unit cost is ₹70/-.…
- Q4 4.(a) (i) "Expert Systems play a significant role in Organisations." Discuss it giving at…