Statistics 2021 Paper II 50 marks Solve

Paper II — Q3

(a) Explain M|G|1 queuing system. Obtain Pollaczek-kinchine formula. (15 marks) (b) Use MODI method to solve the above…

(a)

Explain M|G|1 queuing system. Obtain Pollaczek-kinchine formula. 15 marks

(b)

Use MODI method to solve the above transportation problem:

Store I II III IV A 4 6 8 13 B 13 11 10 8 C 14 4 10 13 D 9 11 13 8

Supply 50 70 30 50

Demand 25 35 105 20 15 marks

(c)

Use two-phase method to solve: Maximize z = 2x₁ + x₂ + x₃ subject to the constraints 4x₁ + 6x₂ + 3x₃ ≤ 8 3x₁ - 6x₂ - 4x₃ ≤ 1 2x₁ + 3x₂ - 5x₃ ≥ 4 and x₁, x₂, x₃ ≥ 0. 20 marks

हिंदी में प्रश्न पढ़ें
(a)

पंक्ति प्रणाली M|G|1 की व्याख्या कीजिए । पोलेकजेक-किंचिन सूत्र को प्राप्त कीजिए । (15 अंक)

(b)

निम्नलिखित परिवहन समस्या का MODI विधि का उपयोग करके हल निकालिए :

भंडार I II III IV A 4 6 8 13 B 13 11 10 8 C 14 4 10 13 D 9 11 13 8

पूर्ति 50 70 30 50

मांग 25 35 105 20 (15 अंक)

(c)

द्विप्रावस्था विधि का उपयोग करके हल कीजिए : अधिकतमीकरण z = 2x₁ + x₂ + x₃ निम्न प्रतिबंधों के अंतर्गत 4x₁ + 6x₂ + 3x₃ ≤ 8 3x₁ - 6x₂ - 4x₃ ≤ 1 2x₁ + 3x₂ - 5x₃ ≥ 4 और x₁, x₂, x₃ ≥ 0. (20 अंक)

Q3 of the 2021 UPSC Mains Statistics Paper II, as printed
The question as printed in the 2021 Statistics paper

The figure this question refers to, in words

The question paper is a scan and the diagram did not survive as text. This is the figure as read from the original page — every component, value and label — so the question can be worked from the text below.

(b) Table with rows labeled A, B, C, D and columns labeled I, II, III, IV, Supply. The values in the table are: Row A: 4, 6, 8, 13, 50 Row B: 13, 11, 10, 8, 70 Row C: 14, 4, 10, 13, 30 Row D: 9, 11, 13, 8, 50 Below the table, a row labeled Demand contains the values: 25, 35, 105, 20.

Model answer

Drafted with AI by UPSC Answer Check against this question's marking rubric, to the expected length. UPSC does not publish answers for Mains — this is one way to score well, not an official key. How we build rubrics and answers.

(a) M|G|1 queue and the Pollaczek–Khinchine formula

In Kendall's notation M means Poisson arrivals at rate λ, G means independent service times S with a general distribution (mean 1/μ, variance σ²), and 1 means a single server. The discipline is FIFO with unlimited capacity. The traffic intensity is ρ = λ/μ and a steady state needs ρ < 1. Service is not memoryless, so the number in system is observed just after departures, where it forms an embedded Markov chain.

Let Xₙ be the number left behind by the n-th departure and Aₙ₊₁ the arrivals during the next service. With U = 1 if Xₙ > 0 and 0 otherwise,

Xₙ₊₁ = Xₙ − U + Aₙ₊₁.

Given S, A is Poisson(λS), so E(A) = ρ and E(A²) = ρ + λ²(σ² + 1/μ²) = ρ + λ²σ² + ρ². In steady state E(Xₙ₊₁) = E(Xₙ) = L gives E(U) = ρ. Squaring the recursion, with U² = U, XU = X and A independent of X and U:

0 = E(U) + E(A²) − 2L + 2L·ρ − 2ρ·ρ, so 2L(1 − ρ) = 2ρ − ρ² + λ²σ².

L = ρ + (λ²σ² + ρ²) / [2(1 − ρ)], and L_q = (λ²σ² + ρ²) / [2(1 − ρ)].

Poisson arrivals see time averages (PASTA), so departure-epoch means equal long-run means. Little's law gives W_q = L_q/λ and W = W_q + 1/μ. Check: for M|M|1, σ² = 1/μ² and L_q = ρ²/(1 − ρ); for M|D|1, σ² = 0 and L_q is half of that, so congestion grows with the variability of service.

(b) Transportation problem by the MODI method

Supply is 200 and demand is 185, so add a dummy store V with demand 15 and zero costs.

Initial solution by Vogel's method (cost 1510): A–I 25, A–II 5, A–III 20, B–III 55, B–V 15, C–II 30, D–III 30, D–IV 20. These are 8 cells = m + n − 1, so it is non-degenerate.

Iteration 1. Put u_A = 0 and use cᵢⱼ = uᵢ + vⱼ on occupied cells: v_I = 4, v_II = 6, v_III = 8, u_B = 2, u_D = 5, u_C = −2, v_V = −2, v_IV = 3. The net evaluations Δ = c − (u + v) of the empty cells are A–IV 10, A–V 2, B–I 7, B–II 3, B–IV 3, C–I 12, C–III 4, C–IV 12, C–V 4, D–I 0, D–II 0 and D–V −3. D–V enters. The loop is D–V(+), D–III(−), B–III(+), B–V(−), so θ = min(30, 15) = 15. The allocations become D–V 15, D–III 15, B–III 70, and B–V leaves.

Iteration 2. Now u = (0, 2, −2, 5) and v = (4, 6, 8, 3, −5). Every Δ is ≥ 0 (A–IV 10, A–V 5, B–I 7, B–II 3, B–IV 3, B–V 3, C–I 12, C–III 4, C–IV 12, C–V 7, D–I 0, D–II 0), so the solution is optimal.

Optimal plan: A sends 25 to I, 5 to II and 20 to III; B sends 70 to III; C sends 30 to II; D sends 15 to III and 20 to IV, with 15 units left unshipped from D (dummy).

Minimum cost = 4(25) + 6(5) + 8(20) + 10(70) + 4(30) + 13(15) + 8(20) = Rs 1465. The zero Δ at D–I and D–II show alternative optima of equal cost.

(c) Two-phase simplex

Standard form: 4x₁ + 6x₂ + 3x₃ + s₁ = 8; 3x₁ − 6x₂ − 4x₃ + s₂ = 1; 2x₁ + 3x₂ − 5x₃ − s₃ + a₁ = 4.

Phase I: minimise a₁. In the starting basis (s₁, s₂, a₁) the entering variable is x₂. The ratios are 8/6 and 4/3, a tie, so a₁ leaves.

After this pivot a₁ = 0 is non-basic, so a feasible basis exists and the a₁ column is dropped.

The basic solution is s₁ = 0, s₂ = 9, x₂ = 4/3 and x₁ = x₃ = 0.

Phase II: maximise z = 2x₁ + x₂ + x₃ from this basis, where z = 4/3. The zⱼ − cⱼ values are −4/3 for x₁, −8/3 for x₃ and −1/3 for s₃, and zero for the basic variables and s₂.

  • x₃ enters; the only positive entry in its column is 13 in the s₁ row, with ratio 0, so s₁ leaves (a degenerate pivot, z unchanged).
  • x₁ enters; the ratios are 9/7 (s₂ row) and 2 (x₂ row), so s₂ leaves.

The final basis is x₃ = 0, x₁ = 9/7 and x₂ = 10/21. All zⱼ − cⱼ are non-negative (16/39 for s₁, 4/21 for s₂, 29/273 for s₃), so it is optimal.

x₁ = 9/7, x₂ = 10/21, x₃ = 0, maximum z = 64/21 ≈ 3.05. Check: 4(9/7) + 6(10/21) = 8, 3(9/7) − 6(10/21) = 1 and 2(9/7) + 3(10/21) = 4, so all three constraints bind and x₃ is basic at zero level.

How this answer will be evaluated

Framework: Operations Research (Queuing Theory, Transportation, Linear Programming)

What earns full marks: Flawless derivations and calculations with clear, logical steps and correct final answers.

Evaluation rubric

Each sub-part is marked on its own, against the marks and word limit printed on the paper.

  1. (a) Explain the M|G|1 system and derive the Pollaczek–Khinchine formula. 15 marks

    explain— definition/context → points in order → small example → short close

    Must cover

    • M|G|1 defined (Poisson arrivals, general service, one server, traffic intensity below 1)
    • Embedded Markov chain at departure epochs
    • Final L and L_q formulas

    Loses marks

    • Quoting the formula without derivation
    • Treating the number in system as Markov in continuous time

    Earns more

    • Correct mean and second moment of arrivals during a service
    • Squaring the recursion and using stationarity
    • Little law for W and W_q

    Extra mark

    • M|M|1 and M|D|1 checks
    • PASTA remark
  2. (b) Solve the transportation problem by the MODI method. 15 marks

    calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation

    Must cover

    • Balancing with a dummy store of demand 15
    • Valid initial basic feasible solution
    • Optimal cost Rs 1465

    Loses marks

    • Not balancing the problem
    • Wrong loop signs

    Earns more

    • u and v values and net evaluations
    • Loop and theta for D–V
    • Optimality test in the second iteration

    Extra mark

    • Noting alternative optima from zero net evaluations
  3. (c) Solve the LP by the two-phase simplex method. 20 marks

    calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation

    Must cover

    • Slack, surplus and artificial variables with Phase I objective
    • Phase I ends with artificial variable at zero
    • Optimal z = 64/21 at x1 = 9/7, x2 = 10/21, x3 = 0

    Loses marks

    • Skipping Phase I
    • Arithmetic errors in pivots

    Earns more

    • Correct pivoting and tie handling
    • Degenerate pivot in Phase II
    • Optimality check and constraint verification

    Extra mark

    • Noting the degenerate optimum
What "Solve" is asking you to do

Choose the method, then carry it through to a final answer. Identifying what kind of problem this is and why that method applies is the first thing marked; a correct figure arrived at invisibly earns almost nothing.

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Given data and what is required → method chosen, with the reason it applies → set-up (equation, circuit, free body, trial balance) → working, step by step → answer with units and any condition of validity

Where marks are lost

Doing the middle steps mentally and writing only the result. In mathematics papers, a further loss comes from giving a decimal where the exact value in surds or fractions was wanted, or from skipping the justification a part explicitly asks for.

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