Statistics

UPSC Statistics 2021

All 16 questions from the 2021 Civil Services Mains Statistics paper across 2 papers — 800 marks in total. Each question comes with a detailed evaluation rubric, directive word analysis, and model answer points.

16Questions
800Total marks
2Papers
2021Exam year

Paper I

8 questions · 400 marks
Q1
50M Compulsory solve Probability theory and statistical inference

(a) A production unit manufacturing surgical masks is concerned about the quality of their masks. A random sample of n masks are inspected to estimate 'p', the probability of manu…

Q2
50M derive Limit theorems and characteristic functions

(a) Let Y₁, Y₂, Y₃, ... be independent and identical Poisson random variables with parameter 1. Use central limit theorem to establish n! ≃ √(2π n)(n/e)ⁿ for large value of positi…

Q3
50M construct Sequential probability ratio test and convergence

(a) Let X and Y be two independent random variables following exponential distribution with mean 1/(λ) and 1/(μ) respectively, λ > 0, μ > 0. Suppose that (X₁, X₂, ..., Xₙ) and (Y₁…

Q4
50M prove UMVUE, joint distributions and non-parametric tests

(a) Let X₁, X₂, ..., Xₙ be a random sample from Poisson distribution with mean λ > 0. Define a statistic W = (1 − 1/n)^T, T = Σᵢ₌₁ⁿ Xᵢ (i) Show that T is complete sufficient stati…

Q5
50M Compulsory derive Linear regression, experimental designs, sampling theory

(a) For a simple linear regression model Y = β₀ + β₁Xᵢ + εᵢ, i = 1, ..., n (i) Derive the least square estimators of β₀ and β₁, clearly stating the conditions assumed. (ii) For eᵢ…

Q6
50M derive Multivariate analysis, correlation, cluster sampling, multivariate normal distribution

(a) For a multiple linear regression model with three covariates X₁, X₂ and X₃, let rᵢⱼ denote the correlation coefficient between Xᵢ and Xⱼ. For a data, it was found r₁₂ = 0·77,…

Q7
50M derive Factorial experiments, principal components, regression estimator

(a) (i) What is confounding in factorial experiments ? (ii) A 2^6factorial experiment is conducted in blocks of size2³. Write the confounded effects such that no main effect or tw…

Q8
50M solve Stratified sampling, polynomial regression, split-plot designs

(a) (i) In stratified sampling under optimum allocation, how will you proceed to select units from different strata, if one or more nᵢ's happens to be greater than Nᵢ (i ≥ 2) ? (i…

Paper II

8 questions · 400 marks
Q1
50M Compulsory solve Quality control, sampling, game theory, Markov chains, reliability

Explain Single Sampling Plan with the help of an example. Also, write the importance of an Operating Characteristics Curve in a sampling plan. (10 marks) Solve the above assignmen…

Q2
50M solve Reliability, control charts, acceptance sampling

A manufacturer finds that on the average, a television set is used 1.8 hours per day. A one year warranty is offered on the picture tube having a mean time to failure (MTTF) of 20…

Q3
50M solve Queuing systems and linear programming

(a) Explain M|G|1 queuing system. Obtain Pollaczek-kinchine formula. (15 marks) (b) Use MODI method to solve the above transportation problem: Store I II III IV A 4 6 8 13 B 13 11…

Q4
50M solve Linear programming and inventory control

(a) Solve the following linear programming problem: Maximize z = 3x₁ + 5x₂ subject to the constraints 3x₁ + 2x₂ ≤ 18 x₁ ≤ 4 x₂ ≤ 6 and x₁, x₂ ≥ 0. Discuss the change in Cⱼ on the…

Q5
50M Compulsory explain Econometrics and vital statistics

(a) Explain Zellner's seemingly unrelated regression model and the feasible generalized least squares method of estimating the model. (10 marks) (b) Explain the functions of N.S.S…

Q6
50M explain Time series analysis and index numbers

(a) Explain Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA models. (15 marks) (b) Prepare the cost of living index for 2006 on the basis of 2005 from the above data by (i) aggregative met…

Q7
50M derive Demography, psychometrics, and life table analysis

(a) If c(x, t) denote observed proportion of females in the age group (x, x+t) and f(x, t) is the observed proportion of females giving birth to female children in the age group (…

Q8
50M explain Econometrics and population projection

(a) What is autocorrelation ? What are its consequences ? Explain the Goldfeld-Quandt test and Glesjer test for heteroscedasticity. (20 marks) (b) Check the identifiability of the…

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