Statistics 2021 Paper II 50 marks Solve

Paper II — Q4

(a) Solve the following linear programming problem: Maximize z = 3x₁ + 5x₂ subject to the constraints 3x₁ + 2x₂ ≤ 18 x₁ ≤ 4 x₂ ≤…

(a)

Solve the following linear programming problem: Maximize z = 3x₁ + 5x₂ subject to the constraints 3x₁ + 2x₂ ≤ 18 x₁ ≤ 4 x₂ ≤ 6 and x₁, x₂ ≥ 0. Discuss the change in Cⱼ on the optimality of the optimal basic feasible solution. 15 marks

(b)

A manufacturer has to supply his customers with 600 units of his product per year. Shortages are not allowed and storage amounts to 60 paise per unit per year. The set up cost per run is Rs. 80. Find (i) economic order quantity (ii) optimum period of supply per optimum order and (iii) increase in the total cost associated with ordering 20 per cent more and 40% less. 15 marks

(c)

A machine is set to deliver the packets of a given weight. Ten samples of size 5 each were examined and the following results were obtained:

Sample No.12345678910
Mean43493744453751464347
Range5657748646

Use mean and range charts to check whether process is under control. (Given for n = 5, d₂ = 2·326 and d₃ = 0·864) 20 marks

हिंदी में प्रश्न पढ़ें
(a)

निम्नलिखित रैखिक प्रोग्रामन समस्या को हल कीजिए : अधिकतमीकरण z = 3x₁ + 5x₂ निम्न प्रतिबंधों के अंतर्गत 3x₁ + 2x₂ ≤ 18 x₁ ≤ 4 x₂ ≤ 6 और x₁, x₂ ≥ 0. इष्टतम आधारी सुसंगत हल के इष्टतमत्व पर Cⱼ में परिवर्तन का वर्णन कीजिए । (15 अंक)

(b)

एक निर्माता को अपने ग्राहकों को प्रति वर्ष अपने उत्पाद की 600 इकाइयों की आपूर्ति करनी पड़ती है। अपयाप्तता की अनुमति नहीं है और गोदाम-भाड़ा 60 पैसे प्रति इकाई प्रति वर्ष है। झोंका लागत प्रति दौर 80 रुपये है। प्राप्त कीजिए (i) आर्थिक आदेश मात्रा (इकोनोमिक ऑर्डर क्वांटिटी) (ii) प्रति इष्टतम आदेश की आपूर्ति की इष्टतम अवधि और (iii) 20 प्रतिशत अधिक और 40% कम आदेश करने से संबंधित कुल लागत में वृद्धि। (15 अंक)

(c)

एक मशीन को दिये गये वजन के पैकेट देने के लिए सेट किया गया है। प्रत्येक आमाप 5 के दस प्रतिदर्शों की जाँच की गई और निम्नलिखित परिणाम प्राप्त हुए :

प्रतिदर्श संख्या12345678910
माध्य43493744453751464347
परिसर5657748646

माध्य और परिसर सांचित्रों का उपयोग करके जाँच कीजिए कि क्या प्रक्रम नियंत्रण में है ? (n = 5 के लिए दिया है, d₂ = 2·326 और d₃ = 0·864) (20 अंक)

Q4 of the 2021 UPSC Mains Statistics Paper II, as printed
The question as printed in the 2021 Statistics paper

Model answer

Drafted with AI by UPSC Answer Check against this question's marking rubric, to the expected length. UPSC does not publish answers for Mains — this is one way to score well, not an official key. How we build rubrics and answers.

(a) Linear programme and sensitivity to cⱼ

Maximise z = 3x₁ + 5x₂ subject to 3x₁ + 2x₂ ≤ 18, x₁ ≤ 4, x₂ ≤ 6, x₁, x₂ ≥ 0. The corner points are (0,0) with z = 0, (4,0) with 12, (4,3) with 27, (2,6) with 36 and (0,6) with 30. The optimum is x₁ = 2, x₂ = 6, z_max = 36.

Add slacks s₁, s₂, s₃ to the three constraints. At the optimum s₁ = 0, s₂ = 2, s₃ = 0, so the basis is (x₁, x₂, s₂) and the non-basic variables are s₁ and s₃. Solving the constraints gives x₂ = 6 − s₃, x₁ = 2 − s₁/3 + 2s₃/3 and s₂ = 2 + s₁/3 − 2s₃/3.

Let the objective coefficients be c₁ and c₂ for x₁ and x₂, and zero for the slacks. Then z = 2c₁ + 6c₂ + (−c₁/3)s₁ + (2c₁/3 − c₂)s₃. For a maximum, both non-basic coefficients must be ≤ 0, so c₁ ≥ 0 and c₂ ≥ 2c₁/3.

  • With c₂ = 5 the solution stays optimal for 0 ≤ c₁ ≤ 15/2. Below 0, s₁ enters the basis; above 15/2, s₃ enters.
  • With c₁ = 3 it stays optimal for c₂ ≥ 2. Below 2, s₃ enters; at c₂ = 2 there are alternative optima.

(b) Economic order quantity

D = 600 units a year, ordering cost C₀ = Rs 80 per run and holding cost C_h = 60 paise = Rs 0.60 per unit a year, with no shortages.

(i) EOQ: Q* = √(2DC₀/C_h) = √(2 × 600 × 80 / 0.60) = √160000 = 400 units.

(ii) Optimum period: T* = Q*/D = 400/600 = 2/3 year (8 months).

(iii) Minimum cost: TC(Q*) = √(2DC₀C_h) = 120 + 120 = Rs 240 a year, with TC(Q) = DC₀/Q + C_hQ/2.

  • 20% more, Q = 480: TC = 100 + 144 = Rs 244, an increase of Rs 4 a year.
  • 40% less, Q = 240: TC = 200 + 72 = Rs 272, an increase of Rs 32 a year.

(c) Mean and range charts

The grand mean is X̄̄ = 442/10 = 44.2 and the average range is R̄ = 58/10 = 5.8. For n = 5, σ̂ = R̄/d₂ = 5.8/2.326 = 2.4936.

Mean chart: 3σ̂/√5 = 3.3455, so UCL = 47.55 and LCL = 40.85. The sample means 49 (sample 2), 37 (3), 37 (6) and 51 (7) lie outside the limits, so the process mean is out of control.

Range chart: UCL = R̄ + 3d₃σ̂ = 5.8 + 3(0.864)(2.4936) = 12.26, and LCL = 5.8 − 6.46 < 0, taken as 0. All ten ranges (4 to 8) lie inside 0 to 12.26, so variability is in control.

The process is not in control overall: the dispersion is stable but the mean is not, so assignable causes affecting the setting of the machine should be traced and removed.

How this answer will be evaluated

Framework: Operations Research / Management Science

What earns full marks: Flawless calculations, clear sensitivity analysis, and precise control chart interpretation.

Evaluation rubric

Each sub-part is marked on its own, against the marks and word limit printed on the paper.

  1. (a) Solve the LP and discuss the effect of a change in cⱼ on the optimal basic feasible solution. 15 marks

    discuss— intro → 3-4 dimensions → example → balanced close

    Must cover

    • Optimum x1 = 2, x2 = 6, z = 36
    • Basis and non-basic variables identified
    • Ranging: 0 ≤ c1 ≤ 15/2 (c2 = 5) and c2 ≥ 2 (c1 = 3)

    Loses marks

    • Wrong corner-point evaluation
    • Ranging without reduced-cost conditions

    Earns more

    • Expressing basic variables in terms of non-basics
    • Optimality condition on reduced costs

    Extra mark

    • Which variable enters when the range is violated
  2. (b) Find EOQ, optimum period and the cost increase for ordering 20% more and 40% less. 15 marks

    calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation

    Must cover

    • EOQ 400 units
    • Period 2/3 year
    • Cost increases Rs 4 and Rs 32 over minimum Rs 240

    Loses marks

    • Using 60 as rupees instead of paise
    • Wrong base for the percentage change

    Earns more

    • Correct cost function with holding cost Rs 0.60
    • Costs at Q = 480 and Q = 240
  3. (c) Use mean and range charts to check whether the process is under control. 20 marks

    examine— intro → how/why with reasoning → evidence → conclusion

    Must cover

    • Grand mean 44.2 and average range 5.8
    • Mean chart limits about 40.85 to 47.55 and range limits 0 to 12.26
    • Conclusion: mean out of control, range in control

    Loses marks

    • Declaring the process in control from the range chart alone
    • Negative lower range limit not set to zero

    Earns more

    • Estimate of sigma from R-bar and d2
    • Range limits using d3
    • Identifying samples 2, 3, 6 and 7 outside

    Extra mark

    • Suggesting search for assignable causes
What "Solve" is asking you to do

Choose the method, then carry it through to a final answer. Identifying what kind of problem this is and why that method applies is the first thing marked; a correct figure arrived at invisibly earns almost nothing.

Structure that answers it

Given data and what is required → method chosen, with the reason it applies → set-up (equation, circuit, free body, trial balance) → working, step by step → answer with units and any condition of validity

Where marks are lost

Doing the middle steps mentally and writing only the result. In mathematics papers, a further loss comes from giving a decimal where the exact value in surds or fractions was wanted, or from skipping the justification a part explicitly asks for.

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