Statistics 2023 Paper I 50 marks Discuss

Paper I — Q7

(a) Discuss the difference between sampling for variables and sampling for attributes with examples. For a qualitative…

(a)

Discuss the difference between sampling for variables and sampling for attributes with examples. For a qualitative characteristic, find an unbiased estimator of population proportion along with its variance when sample is drawn by simple random sampling without replacement. Also obtain an unbiased estimator of this variance. 20 marks

(b)

The table given below gives the population and sample sizes, stratum means and variance of a stratified random sample of size 50. Symbols used have their usual meanings.

Stratum NumberNᵢnᵢȳᵢsᵢ²
13053536
250104049
360154081
4602055144

Verify that the existing allocation is optimum for given 4 strata. Also calculate the estimate of population variance under this allocation. 15 marks

(c)

Differentiate between Simple Random Sampling and Probability Proportional to Size Sampling. How will you draw a PPS sample of size n from a population of size N (n < N) by (i) Cumulative Total Method and (ii) Lahri's Method ? Explain. 15 marks

हिंदी में प्रश्न पढ़ें
(a)

चरों के प्रतिचयन एवं गुणात्मक चरों के प्रतिचयन में अंतर का उदाहरणों सहित वर्णन कीजिए। एक गुणात्मक अभिलक्षण के लिए समष्टि अनुपात का अनभिनत आकलक तथा इस आकलक का प्रसरण ज्ञात कीजिए जबकि प्रतिचयन प्रतिस्थापन रहित सरल यादृच्छिक विधि द्वारा किया गया है। इस प्रसरण का अनभिनत आकलक भी निकालिए। 20

(b)

नीचे दी गई सारणी में 50 आकार के स्तरीकृत यादृच्छिक प्रतिदर्श के स्तरों का माध्य एवं प्रसरण तथा स्तरों की समष्टि का आकार तथा स्तरों से चयनित प्रतिदर्शी आकारों को दिया गया है। चिह्नों को उनके सामान्य अर्थों में प्रयुक्त किया गया है।

स्तर संख्याNᵢnᵢȳᵢsᵢ²
13053536
250104049
360154081
4602055144

प्रमाणित कीजिए कि दिए गए 4 स्तरों के लिए मौजूदा आवंटन इष्टतम है। समष्टि प्रसरण का इस आवंटन के सापेक्ष आकलक भी ज्ञात कीजिए। 15

(c)

सरल यादृच्छिक प्रतिचयन तथा आकार अनुपातिक प्रायिकता प्रतिचयन में विभेद कीजिए । एक n आकार के आकार अनुपातिक प्रायिकता प्रतिदर्श को आप (i) संचयी योग विधि तथा (ii) लाहिरी विधि द्वारा N (n < N) आकार की समष्टि से कैसे चुनेंगे ? स्पष्ट कीजिए । 15

Q7 of the 2023 UPSC Mains Statistics Paper I, as printed
The question as printed in the 2023 Statistics paper

The figure this question refers to, in words

The question paper is a scan and the diagram did not survive as text. This is the figure as read from the original page — every component, value and label — so the question can be worked from the text below.

(b) Table with 5 rows and 5 columns. Header row: Stratum Number, N_i, n_i, y_bar_i, s_i^2. Row 1: 1, 30, 5, 35, 36. Row 2: 2, 50, 10, 40, 49. Row 3: 3, 60, 15, 40, 81. Row 4: 4, 60, 20, 55, 144.

Model answer

Drafted with AI by UPSC Answer Check against this question's marking rubric, to the expected length. UPSC does not publish answers for Mains — this is one way to score well, not an official key. How we build rubrics and answers.

(a) Sampling for variables and attributes; estimator of proportion and its variance

Sampling for variables: the characteristic is quantitative, each unit has a measured value, and the target is a mean or total, such as wheat yield per hectare or household monthly expenditure in an NSSO survey. Sampling for attributes: the characteristic is qualitative, each unit is classified as having the attribute or not, and the target is a proportion or count, such as whether a household is literate or a farm is irrigated. Estimation under SRSWOR: let N units contain M with the attribute, so P = M/N and Q = 1 − P. In a sample of size n, let n′ units have it. Step 1: Define yᵢ = 1 if the unit has the attribute and 0 otherwise. Then p = n′/n = ȳ, and E(p) = P, so p is unbiased for P. Step 2: The population variance is S² = NPQ/(N − 1). Step 3: V(p) = (1 − f)S²/n = (N − n)PQ/[(N − 1)n], where f = n/N. Step 4: The sample variance s² = n pq/(n − 1) is unbiased for S², where q = 1 − p. Step 5: An unbiased estimator of V(p) is v(p) = (1 − f)s²/n = (N − n)pq/[N(n − 1)].

(b) Verifying optimum allocation and estimating the variance

Step 1: Optimum (Neyman) allocation for equal costs requires nᵢ proportional to NᵢSᵢ. Here Sᵢ = 6, 7, 9, 12, so NᵢSᵢ = 180, 350, 540, 720, with total 1790. Step 2: The optimum sizes are 50 × NᵢSᵢ/1790 = 5·03, 9·78, 15·08, 20·11, which round to 5, 10, 15, 20, the given allocation. The ratios nᵢ/(NᵢSᵢ) are nearly equal. Step 3: Weights Wᵢ = Nᵢ/200 = 0·15, 0·25, 0·30, 0·30, so ȳ_st = ΣWᵢȳᵢ = 5·25 + 10 + 12 + 16·5 = 43·75. Step 4: v(ȳ_st) = ΣWᵢ²(1/nᵢ − 1/Nᵢ)sᵢ² = 0·135 + 0·245 + 0·3645 + 0·432 = 1·1765, so the standard error is about 1·08. Check: the optimum-allocation formula (ΣWᵢSᵢ)²/n − ΣWᵢSᵢ²/N = 80·10/50 − 85·15/200 = 1·176, matching. The existing allocation is optimum (to rounding), and the estimated variance of the stratified mean is 1·1765.

(c) SRS versus PPS; drawing a PPS sample

Difference: in SRS every unit has equal selection probability 1/N. In PPS, unit i has probability Pᵢ = Xᵢ/X proportional to a size measure Xᵢ (such as area, workers or capital). PPS is suited to skewed populations where a few large units dominate, and the Hansen-Hurwitz estimator is unbiased for the total. (i) Cumulative total method (with replacement): Step 1: Form Cᵢ = X₁ + … + Xᵢ, with Cₙ = X = total. Step 2: Draw a random number R from 1 to X. Step 3: Select the unit i with Cᵢ₋₁ < R ≤ Cᵢ. Step 4: Repeat n times independently; units may repeat. (ii) Lahiri's method: Step 1: Let M be the maximum of Xᵢ (or any number at least as large). Step 2: Draw a unit i at random from 1..N and a number j at random from 1..M. Step 3: If j ≤ Xᵢ, accept unit i; otherwise reject the pair and draw again. Step 4: The accepted unit has probability Xᵢ/X. Repeat until n units are accepted. Lahiri's method avoids computing cumulative totals.

How this answer will be evaluated

Framework: UPSC Statistics Paper 1

What earns full marks: All derivations complete, calculations accurate, methods clearly explained with correct notation

Evaluation rubric

Each sub-part is marked on its own, against the marks and word limit printed on the paper.

  1. (a) Discuss variable versus attribute sampling and derive the SRSWOR estimator of proportion, its variance and unbiased variance estimator. 20 marks

    discuss— intro → 3-4 dimensions → example → balanced close

    Must cover

    • Distinction with examples: quantitative versus qualitative
    • p=n'/n unbiased for P
    • V(p)=(N-n)PQ/((N-1)n)
    • v(p)=(N-n)pq/(N(n-1))

    Loses marks

    • Using n instead of n-1; omitting the finite population correction.

    Earns more

    • Clear distinction with examples and the three correct formulas.

    Extra mark

    • Link to the 0-1 variable with S^2=NPQ/(N-1).
  2. (b) Calculate whether the allocation is optimum and estimate the variance of the stratified mean. 15 marks

    calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation

    Must cover

    • Neyman allocation n_i proportional to N_i S_i: 180,350,540,720
    • Optimum sizes round to 5,10,15,20
    • ybar_st = 43.75
    • Estimated variance 1.1765

    Loses marks

    • Using proportional allocation; omitting fpc.

    Earns more

    • Allocation check with numbers and correct stratified mean and variance.

    Extra mark

    • Cross-check with optimum variance formula 1.176.
  3. (c) Differentiate SRS and PPS and explain cumulative-total and Lahiri methods. 15 marks

    explain— definition/context → points in order → small example → short close

    Must cover

    • Equal probability versus probability proportional to size X_i/X
    • Cumulative totals, random number 1..X, select by C(i-1)<R<=C(i)
    • Lahiri: i from 1..N, j from 1..M, accept if j<=X_i
    • Repetition allowed (with replacement)

    Loses marks

    • Mixing up the two methods; no acceptance rule.

    Earns more

    • Difference, both procedures in ordered steps and acceptance rules.

    Extra mark

    • Hansen-Hurwitz estimator mention.
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Lay the issue out from more than one side — how it arose, what is claimed for it, what is held against it, and where it now stands. UPSC attaches discuss to broad topics with several live dimensions, so coverage of the dimensions earns more than the strength of your opinion.

Structure that answers it

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