Statistics 2023 Paper I 50 marks Differentiate

Paper I — Q8

(a) Differentiate between randomised block design and balanced incomplete block design. In usual notations, for a balanced…

(a)

Differentiate between randomised block design and balanced incomplete block design. In usual notations, for a balanced incomplete block design, prove that (i) bk = vr (ii) λ(v – 1) = r(k – 1) and (iii) b ≥ v. 20 marks

(b)

Explain the concept of confounding in design of experiment. In an experiment with three factors A, B and C, each at two levels, three replicates are divided in two blocks, each of four units. How will you confound ABC in the first, AC in the second and BC in the third replication ? 15 marks

(c)

Differentiate among fixed, random and mixed effect models with examples. How are the three basic principles of design fulfilled in randomised block design ? Explain. 15 marks

हिंदी में प्रश्न पढ़ें
(a)

यादृच्छिक खंड अभिकल्पना तथा संतुलित अपूर्ण खंडक अभिकल्पना में अंतर बताइए । सामान्य प्रयुक्त संकेताक्षरों में सिद्ध कीजिए कि संतुलित अपूर्ण खंडक अभिकल्पना में (i) bk = vr (ii) λ(v – 1) = r(k – 1) तथा (iii) b ≥ v. 20 अंक

(b)

प्रयोगात्मक अभिकल्पना में संकरण के सिद्धांत की व्याख्या कीजिए । किसी प्रयोग में जिसमें तीन उपादान A, B तथा C जिनमें प्रत्येक दो स्तरों पर हैं, तीन पुनरावृत्त चार इकाइयों के दो खंडों में विभाजित हैं । आप ABC को पहले, AC को दूसरे तथा BC को तीसरे पुनरावृत्त में किस प्रकार संकरित करेंगे ? 15 अंक

(c)

नियत, यादृच्छिक एवं मिश्रित प्रभाव मॉडलों में उदाहरणों सहित विभेद कीजिए । यादृच्छिक खण्डक अभिकल्पना में अभिकल्पना के तीन मूलभूत सिद्धान्तों का समावेश कैसे होता है ? स्पष्ट कीजिए । 15

Q8 of the 2023 UPSC Mains Statistics Paper I, as printed
The question as printed in the 2023 Statistics paper

Model answer

Drafted with AI by UPSC Answer Check against this question's marking rubric, to the expected length. UPSC does not publish answers for Mains — this is one way to score well, not an official key. How we build rubrics and answers.

(a) RBD versus BIBD; proof of the BIBD relations

Difference: in a randomised block design every block contains all v treatments (k = v, r = b), so it is a complete-block design. In a BIBD each block holds only k < v treatments, so blocks are incomplete, and it is used when block size cannot be as large as the number of treatments. In a BIBD each treatment occurs in r blocks and each pair of treatments occurs together in exactly λ blocks, which keeps all treatment comparisons equally precise. Notation: v treatments, b blocks, r replications per treatment, k units per block, λ common pair-count. (i) bk = vr: the total number of units is counted by blocks (b blocks of k units each) and by treatments (v treatments of r units each), so bk = vr. (ii) λ(v − 1) = r(k − 1): fix one treatment. It occurs in r blocks, each containing k − 1 other treatments, so it meets other treatments r(k − 1) times. It meets each of the other v − 1 treatments λ times, so λ(v − 1) = r(k − 1). (iii) b ≥ v (Fisher's inequality): Step 1: Let N be the v × b incidence matrix. Then NN′ has diagonal entries r and off-diagonal entries λ, so NN′ = (r − λ)I + λJ. Step 2: From (ii), r > λ because k < v. Its determinant is (r − λ)^(v−1)(r + λ(v − 1)) = (r − λ)^(v−1) rk, which is non-zero. Step 3: Hence rank(NN′) = v. Since rank(NN′) ≤ rank(N) ≤ b, we get b ≥ v.

(b) Confounding and partial confounding in a 2³ experiment

Concept: confounding deliberately mixes (aliases) a treatment effect, usually a higher-order interaction, with block effects, so that blocks of a smaller size can be used while the other effects remain estimable. When the same effect is confounded in all replicates it is completely confounded and lost; when different effects are confounded in different replicates (partial confounding), each effect is estimated from the replicates where it is not confounded. Plan: the eight treatment combinations are (1), a, b, ab, c, ac, bc, abc. Each replicate has two blocks of four units. The two blocks separate combinations by the sign of the confounded contrast. Replicate 1, confounding ABC: Block 1 holds a, b, c, abc (odd number of letters); Block 2 holds (1), ab, ac, bc. Replicate 2, confounding AC: Block 1 holds (1), b, ac, abc; Block 2 holds a, c, ab, bc. Replicate 3, confounding BC: Block 1 holds (1), a, bc, abc; Block 2 holds b, c, ab, ac. Thus ABC, AC and BC are each lost in one replicate only. Their partial information, along with full information on A, B, C, AB, is obtained from the other replicates.

(c) Fixed, random and mixed models; basic principles in RBD

Fixed-effects model: the factor levels are chosen deliberately, effects are constants and inference applies only to those levels. Example: comparing three named paddy varieties, or urea doses of 0, 50 and 100 kg N/ha. Random-effects model: the levels are a random sample from a larger population, effects are random variables, and inference concerns variance components for the whole population. Example: randomly chosen villages, fields or years. Mixed model: some factors are fixed and others random. Example: fixed fertiliser levels tested on randomly selected farms. Basic principles in RBD: Replication: each treatment appears once in every block, so it is repeated b times, which gives an estimate of error. Randomisation: within each block treatments are allotted to plots at random, which avoids systematic bias and makes the error term valid. Local control: blocks group homogeneous plots (similar fertility, slope or moisture), so block-to-block variation is removed from the error.

How this answer will be evaluated

Framework: Design of Experiments (DOE) & Statistical Models

What earns full marks: Rigorous proofs for (a); precise block construction for (b); clear model distinctions for (c).

Evaluation rubric

Each sub-part is marked on its own, against the marks and word limit printed on the paper.

  1. (a) Differentiate RBD and BIBD and prove bk=vr, lambda(v-1)=r(k-1) and b>=v. 20 marks

    compare— paired headings or point-wise contrast → key differences → significance → conclusion

    Must cover

    • Complete versus incomplete blocks with k<v, r and lambda properties
    • bk=vr by counting units
    • lambda(v-1)=r(k-1) by counting pairs for one treatment
    • Fisher: NN'=(r-lambda)I+lambda J, nonsingular, rank v <= b

    Loses marks

    • Listing differences without comparison; proving (iii) without rank argument.

    Earns more

    • Comparative framing and all three proofs with the reasoning shown.

    Extra mark

    • Determinant (r-lambda)^(v-1) rk and r>lambda justification.
  2. (b) Explain confounding and show the partial confounding plan for ABC, AC and BC in three replicates. 15 marks

    explain— definition/context → points in order → small example → short close

    Must cover

    • Concept of aliasing an effect with blocks; complete versus partial confounding
    • Rep 1 ABC: {a,b,c,abc} and {(1),ab,ac,bc}
    • Rep 2 AC: {(1),b,ac,abc} and {a,c,ab,bc}
    • Rep 3 BC: {(1),a,bc,abc} and {b,c,ab,ac}

    Loses marks

    • Wrong block membership; confounding the same effect in all replicates.

    Earns more

    • Correct concept and all three block layouts with block assignment rule.

    Extra mark

    • Statement of which effects remain fully estimable.
  3. (c) Differentiate fixed, random and mixed models with examples and show how RBD satisfies the three principles. 15 marks

    compare— paired headings or point-wise contrast → key differences → significance → conclusion

    Must cover

    • Fixed versus random versus mixed with inference scope
    • Examples for each
    • Replication, randomisation and local control in RBD with explanation

    Loses marks

    • Listing definitions with no examples or no link to RBD.

    Earns more

    • Differences with examples and each principle linked to RBD features.

    Extra mark

    • Mention of variance components.
What "Differentiate" is asking you to do

Fix the criteria on which the two differ and apply each criterion to both, so the pair can no longer be mixed up. Differentiate stems usually carry a further task attached — describe the mechanism, set out the principles, discuss the applications — and that task carries its own marks.

Structure that answers it

Criterion 1 applied to both → criterion 2 → criterion 3 → summary line or table → the attached second demand answered in full

Where marks are lost

Two standalone definitions placed side by side, leaving the reader to extract the difference. The second common loss is running out of space before the attached task, which is often worth as much as the differentiation.

All UPSC directive words, compared →

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