Statistics 2023 Paper II 50 marks Solve

Paper II — Q3

(a) Solve the following Linear Programming problem using Two Phase method : Maximize Z = 3x₁ - x₂ Subject to 2x₁ + x₂ ≥ 2, x₁ +…

(a)

Solve the following Linear Programming problem using Two Phase method : Maximize Z = 3x₁ - x₂ Subject to 2x₁ + x₂ ≥ 2, x₁ + 3x₂ ≤ 2, x₂ ≤ 4, x₁ ≥ 0, x₂ ≥ 0

(b)
(i)

Solve the above assignment problem. Cell values represent cost of assigning job A, B, C and D to the machines I, II, III and IV.

(ii)

Write down the dual for the given primal problem. Max Z = 6x₁ - 5x₂ + 7x₃ + x₄ Subject to 2x₁ + 4x₂ - x₃ + x₄ ≤ 4, x₁ - x₂ + 6x₃ + 7x₄ ≥ 5, 2x₁ + 2x₂ + 4x₃ + 5x₄ = 6, x₁ + 8x₂ + x₃ = 7; x₁ and x₄ unrestricted, x₂ ≥ 0, x₃ ≥ 0

(c)

What is a basic Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model in Inventory Control and state the assumption made. A Company estimates that it will sell 12000 units of its products for the forthcoming year. The ordering cost is ₹100 per order and the carrying cost per year is 20% of the purchase price per unit. The purchase price per unit is ₹50. Find (i) EOQ (ii) Number of orders per year (iii) Time between successive orders.

हिंदी में प्रश्न पढ़ें
(a)

द्विप्रावस्था विधि का उपयोग करके निम्नलिखित रैखिक प्रोग्रामन समस्या को हल कीजिए : अधिकतमीकरण Z = 3x₁ - x₂ निम्न प्रतिबंधों के अंतर्गत 2x₁ + x₂ ≥ 2, x₁ + 3x₂ ≤ 2, x₂ ≤ 4, x₁ ≥ 0, x₂ ≥ 0

(b)
(i)

निम्नलिखित नियत समस्या को हल कीजिए । प्रत्येक मान मशीनों I, II, III और IV को कार्य A, B, C और D सौंपने की लागतों को दर्शाता है ।

(ii)

दी गई आद्य समस्या के लिए द्वैति लिखिए : अधिकतमीकरण Z = 6x₁ - 5x₂ + 7x₃ + x₄ निम्न प्रतिबंधों के अंतर्गत 2x₁ + 4x₂ - x₃ + x₄ ≤ 4, x₁ - x₂ + 6x₃ + 7x₄ ≥ 5, 2x₁ + 2x₂ + 4x₃ + 5x₄ = 6, x₁ + 8x₂ + x₃ = 7; x₁ और x₄ अप्रतिबंधित, x₂ ≥ 0, x₃ ≥ 0

(c)

तालिका नियंत्रण में मूलभूत आर्थिक आदेश मात्रा (ई.ओ.क्यू.) मॉडल क्या है और इसमें ली गई अभिधारणा को बताइए । एक कंपनी का अनुमान है कि वह अपने उत्पादों की 12000 इकाइयाँ आगामी वर्ष में बेचेगी । आदेश लागत 100 रुपये प्रति आदेश है और प्रति वर्ष ले जाने की लागत खरीद मूल्य का 20 प्रतिशत प्रति इकाई है । खरीद मूल्य 50 रुपये प्रति इकाई है । ज्ञात कीजिए (i) आर्थिक आदेश मात्रा (ई.ओ.क्यू.) (ii) प्रति वर्ष आदेशों (ऑर्डरों) की संख्या (iii) क्रमिक आदेशों के बीच का समय ।

Q3 of the 2023 UPSC Mains Statistics Paper II, as printed
The question as printed in the 2023 Statistics paper

The figure this question refers to, in words

The question paper is a scan and the diagram did not survive as text. This is the figure as read from the original page — every component, value and label — so the question can be worked from the text below.

(b(i)) Table showing cost of assigning Jobs to Machines: Machines: I, II, III, IV Job A: 10, 12, 19, 11 Job B: 5, 10, 7, 8 Job C: 12, 14, 13, 11 Job D: 8, 15, 11, 9

(b(i)) Table titled 'Machines' with rows labeled 'Jobs' (A, B, C, D) and columns labeled I, II, III, IV. The values in the table are: Row A: 10, 12, 19, 11; Row B: 5, 10, 7, 8; Row C: 12, 14, 13, 11; Row D: 8, 15, 11, 9.

(b(i)) Table titled 'Machines' with rows labeled 'Jobs' A, B, C, D and columns labeled I, II, III, IV. The values in the table are: Row A: 10, 12, 19, 11; Row B: 5, 10, 7, 8; Row C: 12, 14, 13, 11; Row D: 8, 15, 11, 9.

Model answer

Written by UPSC Answer Check against this question's marking rubric, to the expected length. UPSC does not publish answers for Mains — this is one way to score well, not an official key.

(a) Convert to equality form. For 2x₁ + x₂ ≥ 2, subtract surplus s₁ and add artificial a₁: 2x₁ + x₂ - s₁ + a₁ = 2. For x₁ + 3x₂ ≤ 2 add slack s₂: x₁ + 3x₂ + s₂ = 2. For x₂ ≤ 4 add slack s₃: x₂ + s₃ = 4. All variables are non-negative.

Phase I minimises W = a₁. Initial basis is a₁, s₂, s₃, with a₁ = 2, s₂ = 2, s₃ = 4. From row 1, a₁ = 2 - 2x₁ - x₂ + s₁, so W = 2 - 2x₁ - x₂ + s₁. The most negative coefficient is -2, so x₁ enters. Ratio test: a₁ row gives 2/2 = 1, s₂ row gives 2/1 = 2; hence a₁ leaves. Pivot on the coefficient 2 in row 1.

After pivot: x₁ = 1 - 1/2x₂ + 1/2s₁ - 1/2a₁, s₂ = 1 - 5/2x₂ - 1/2s₁ + 1/2a₁, s₃ = 4 - x₂, W = a₁. With nonbasic variables x₂ = s₁ = a₁ = 0, W = 0 and the reduced costs are non-negative. Thus Phase I is optimal and the artificial variable is removed. The basic feasible solution is x₁ = 1, x₂ = 0, s₂ = 1, s₃ = 4.

Phase II maximises Z = 3x₁ - x₂. Using the x₁ row with a₁ = 0, Z = 3(1 - 1/2x₂ + 1/2s₁) - x₂ = 3 - 5/2x₂ + 3/2s₁. For maximisation, s₁ enters because its coefficient is positive. Ratio test: only s₂ decreases as s₁ increases, since s₂ = 1 - 5/2x₂ - 1/2s₁; ratio is 1/(1/2) = 2, so s₂ leaves. Pivot gives s₁ = 2 - 5x₂ - 2s₂.

Updated equations: x₁ = 2 - 3x₂ - s₂, s₁ = 2 - 5x₂ - 2s₂, s₃ = 4 - x₂, Z = 6 - 10x₂ - 3s₂. All nonbasic coefficients in the Z-row are non-positive, so the tableau is optimal at x₂ = s₂ = 0. Hence x₁ = 2, x₂ = 0 and maximum Z = 6; this point satisfies 4 ≥ 2, 2 ≤ 2 and 0 ≤ 4.

(b)(i) Use Hungarian method to minimise total cost. Row minima are 10, 5, 11, 8. Subtracting row minima gives: A: 0, 2, 9, 1; B: 0, 5, 2, 3; C: 1, 3, 2, 0; D: 0, 7, 3, 1. Column minima are 0, 2, 2, 0. Subtracting column minima gives: A: 0, 0, 7, 1; B: 0, 3, 0, 3; C: 1, 1, 0, 0; D: 0, 5, 1, 1. Independent zeros can be assigned as A-II, B-III, C-IV, D-I. Since four independent zeros exist, the assignment is optimal. The total row and column reduction is 38; because the selected cells are zero in the reduced matrix, their original cost equals this lower bound. Minimum cost is 12 + 7 + 11 + 8 = 38. Assignment: A to II, B to III, C to IV, D to I; minimum cost = 38 cost units.

(b)(ii) Let y₁, y₂, y₃, y₄ be dual variables for the four primal constraints. Since the primal is a maximisation problem, the dual is a minimisation problem. For a max primal, a ≤ constraint gives a non-negative dual variable, a ≥ constraint gives a non-positive dual variable, and an equality constraint gives an unrestricted dual variable. Thus y₁ ≥ 0, y₂ ≤ 0, y₃ and y₄ are unrestricted. Since x₁ and x₄ are unrestricted, their dual constraints are equalities; since x₂ and x₃ are non-negative, their dual constraints are ≥. The left-hand sides are obtained by taking the coefficients of each primal variable down the columns.

Dual: Minimise W = 4y₁ + 5y₂ + 6y₃ + 7y₄ subject to 2y₁ + y₂ + 2y₃ + y₄ = 6, 4y₁ - y₂ + 2y₃ + 8y₄ ≥ -5, -y₁ + 6y₂ + 4y₃ + y₄ ≥ 7, y₁ + 7y₂ + 5y₃ = 1, with y₁ ≥ 0, y₂ ≤ 0, y₃, y₄ unrestricted.

(c) A basic EOQ model is a deterministic single-item inventory model. It assumes constant annual demand D, fixed ordering cost S per order, constant unit purchase price P, linear holding cost H per unit per year, no shortages, instantaneous replenishment, constant lead time, and no quantity discounts. The formula is valid when D, S and H are positive and the order quantity is treated as continuous; if whole units are required, the result is rounded.

Here D = 12000 units/year, S = ₹100/order, P = ₹50/unit. The holding cost is 20% of purchase price, so H = 20% × 50 = ₹10/unit/year.

The EOQ formula is Q = √(2DS/H). Therefore Q = √(2 × 12000 × 100 / 10) = √240000 = 200√6 units.

Number of orders per year: N = D/Q = 12000/(200√6) = 10√6 orders/year.

Time between successive orders: T = 1/N = √6/60 year. If a 365-day year is taken, T = 365√6/60 = 73√6/12 days.

EOQ = 200√6 units; number of orders = 10√6 orders/year; time between orders = √6/60 year (73√6/12 days for 365 days/year).

What "Solve" is asking you to do

Choose the method, then carry it through to a final answer. Identifying what kind of problem this is and why that method applies is the first thing marked; a correct figure arrived at invisibly earns almost nothing.

Structure that answers it

Given data and what is required → method chosen, with the reason it applies → set-up (equation, circuit, free body, trial balance) → working, step by step → answer with units and any condition of validity

Where marks are lost

Doing the middle steps mentally and writing only the result. In mathematics papers, a further loss comes from giving a decimal where the exact value in surds or fractions was wanted, or from skipping the justification a part explicitly asks for.

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How this answer will be evaluated

Approach

Framework: Operations Research / Management Science. (a) calculate: given > formula > substitution > result with units > interpretation | (b(i)) calculate: given > formula > substitution > result with units > interpretation | (b(ii)) write short notes: define > 3-4 key features > one example > one-line significance | (c) calculate: given > formula > substitution > result with units > interpretation Full marks: All parts solved with correct methodology, clear steps, and accurate final answers.

Key points expected

  • Formulate Phase I with artificial variables
  • Perform simplex iterations for Phase I
  • Formulate Phase II with original objective
  • State final optimal values for x1, x2, Z
  • Apply row and column reduction
  • Find minimum number of independent assignments
  • Perform iterations to reach optimal assignment
  • State final assignment and total cost

Evaluation rubric

Each sub-part is marked on its own, against the marks and word limit printed on the paper.

  1. (a) Solve the LP problem using the Two Phase method. 15 marks

    calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation

    Must cover

    • Formulate Phase I with artificial variables
    • Perform simplex iterations for Phase I
    • Formulate Phase II with original objective
    • State final optimal values for x1, x2, Z

    Loses marks

    • Skipping Phase I directly to Phase II
    • Arithmetic errors in tableau calculations
    • Failure to check for optimality conditions

    Earns more

    • Correctly identifies infeasibility if applicable
    • Clean simplex tableaus
    • Explicit handling of constraints

    Extra mark

    • Graphical verification of the solution
  2. (b(i)) Solve the assignment problem for jobs A-D to machines I-IV. 15 marks

    calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation

    Must cover

    • Apply row and column reduction
    • Find minimum number of independent assignments
    • Perform iterations to reach optimal assignment
    • State final assignment and total cost

    Loses marks

    • Incorrect reduction steps
    • Failure to cover all zeros with minimum lines
    • Incorrect final assignment mapping

    Earns more

    • Correct use of Hungarian method steps
    • Clear display of opportunity cost matrix
    • Accurate final cost calculation

    Extra mark

    • Alternative optimal solutions identified
  3. (b(ii)) Write the dual for the given primal problem. 5 marks

    write short notes— define → 3-4 key features → one example → one-line significance

    Must cover

    • Identify dual variables for each constraint
    • Correctly map primal constraints to dual variables
    • Handle unrestricted variables x1, x4 correctly
    • State the dual objective and constraints

    Loses marks

    • Incorrect sign for dual variables
    • Failure to handle unrestricted variables
    • Mismatched coefficients in dual constraints

    Earns more

    • Correct sign of dual variables
    • Accurate dual constraint coefficients
    • Clear notation for dual variables

    Extra mark

    • Explicit statement of duality rules used
  4. (c) Define EOQ model, state assumptions, and calculate EOQ, orders/year, and time between orders. 15 marks

    calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation

    Must cover

    • Define EOQ model and state key assumptions
    • Calculate EOQ using formula sqrt(2DS/H)
    • Calculate number of orders per year
    • Calculate time between successive orders

    Loses marks

    • Incorrect EOQ formula or substitution
    • Missing assumptions for EOQ model
    • Calculation errors in orders or time

    Earns more

    • Correct identification of D, S, H values
    • Clear step-by-step calculation
    • Proper units in final answers

    Extra mark

    • Graphical representation of EOQ model
    • Sensitivity analysis on parameters

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