Statistics 2023 Paper II 50 marks Solve

Paper II — Q3

(a) Solve the following Linear Programming problem using Two Phase method : Maximize Z = 3x₁ - x₂ Subject to 2x₁ + x₂ ≥ 2, x₁ +…

(a)

Solve the following Linear Programming problem using Two Phase method : Maximize Z = 3x₁ - x₂ Subject to 2x₁ + x₂ ≥ 2, x₁ + 3x₂ ≤ 2, x₂ ≤ 4, x₁ ≥ 0, x₂ ≥ 0

(b)
(i)

Solve the following assignment problem. Cell values represent cost of assigning jobs A, B, C and D to machines I, II, III and IV.

Cost matrix (rows: jobs; columns: machines I, II, III, IV): A: 10, 12, 19, 11 B: 5, 10, 7, 8 C: 12, 14, 13, 11 D: 8, 15, 11, 9

Solve the above assignment problem. Cell values represent cost of assigning job A, B, C and D to the machines I, II, III and IV.

(ii)

Write down the dual for the given primal problem. Max Z = 6x₁ - 5x₂ + 7x₃ + x₄ Subject to 2x₁ + 4x₂ - x₃ + x₄ ≤ 4, x₁ - x₂ + 6x₃ + 7x₄ ≥ 5, 2x₁ + 2x₂ + 4x₃ + 5x₄ = 6, x₁ + 8x₂ + x₃ = 7; x₁ and x₄ unrestricted, x₂ ≥ 0, x₃ ≥ 0

(c)

What is a basic Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model in Inventory Control and state the assumption made. A Company estimates that it will sell 12000 units of its products for the forthcoming year. The ordering cost is ₹100 per order and the carrying cost per year is 20% of the purchase price per unit. The purchase price per unit is ₹50. Find (i) EOQ (ii) Number of orders per year (iii) Time between successive orders.

हिंदी में प्रश्न पढ़ें
(a)

द्विप्रावस्था विधि का उपयोग करके निम्नलिखित रैखिक प्रोग्रामन समस्या को हल कीजिए : अधिकतमीकरण Z = 3x₁ - x₂ निम्न प्रतिबंधों के अंतर्गत 2x₁ + x₂ ≥ 2, x₁ + 3x₂ ≤ 2, x₂ ≤ 4, x₁ ≥ 0, x₂ ≥ 0

(b)
(i)

निम्नलिखित नियतन समस्या को हल कीजिए । प्रकोष्ठ मान मशीनों I, II, III और IV को कार्य A, B, C और D सौंपने की लागतों को दर्शाता है ।

लागत आव्यूह (पंक्तियाँ: कार्य; स्तंभ: मशीनें I, II, III, IV): A: 10, 12, 19, 11 B: 5, 10, 7, 8 C: 12, 14, 13, 11 D: 8, 15, 11, 9

(ii)

दी गई आद्य समस्या के लिए द्वैति लिखिए : अधिकतमीकरण Z = 6x₁ - 5x₂ + 7x₃ + x₄ निम्न प्रतिबंधों के अंतर्गत 2x₁ + 4x₂ - x₃ + x₄ ≤ 4, x₁ - x₂ + 6x₃ + 7x₄ ≥ 5, 2x₁ + 2x₂ + 4x₃ + 5x₄ = 6, x₁ + 8x₂ + x₃ = 7; x₁ और x₄ अप्रतिबंधित, x₂ ≥ 0, x₃ ≥ 0

(c)

तालिका नियंत्रण में मूलभूत आर्थिक आदेश मात्रा (ई.ओ.क्यू.) मॉडल क्या है और इसमें ली गई अभिधारणा को बताइए । एक कंपनी का अनुमान है कि वह अपने उत्पादों की 12000 इकाइयाँ आगामी वर्ष में बेचेगी । आदेश लागत 100 रुपये प्रति आदेश है और प्रति वर्ष ले जाने की लागत खरीद मूल्य का 20 प्रतिशत प्रति इकाई है । खरीद मूल्य 50 रुपये प्रति इकाई है । ज्ञात कीजिए (i) आर्थिक आदेश मात्रा (ई.ओ.क्यू.) (ii) प्रति वर्ष आदेशों (ऑर्डरों) की संख्या (iii) क्रमिक आदेशों के बीच का समय ।

Q3 of the 2023 UPSC Mains Statistics Paper II, as printed
The question as printed in the 2023 Statistics paper

The figure this question refers to, in words

The question paper is a scan and the diagram did not survive as text. This is the figure as read from the original page — every component, value and label — so the question can be worked from the text below.

(b(i)) Table showing cost of assigning Jobs to Machines: Machines: I, II, III, IV Job A: 10, 12, 19, 11 Job B: 5, 10, 7, 8 Job C: 12, 14, 13, 11 Job D: 8, 15, 11, 9

(b(i)) Table titled 'Machines' with rows labeled 'Jobs' (A, B, C, D) and columns labeled I, II, III, IV. The values in the table are: Row A: 10, 12, 19, 11; Row B: 5, 10, 7, 8; Row C: 12, 14, 13, 11; Row D: 8, 15, 11, 9.

(b(i)) Table titled 'Machines' with rows labeled 'Jobs' A, B, C, D and columns labeled I, II, III, IV. The values in the table are: Row A: 10, 12, 19, 11; Row B: 5, 10, 7, 8; Row C: 12, 14, 13, 11; Row D: 8, 15, 11, 9.

Model answer

Drafted with AI by UPSC Answer Check against this question's marking rubric, to the expected length. UPSC does not publish answers for Mains — this is one way to score well, not an official key. How we build rubrics and answers.

(a) Two-phase solution of the linear programme

Maximise Z = 3x₁ − x₂ subject to 2x₁ + x₂ ≥ 2, x₁ + 3x₂ ≤ 2, x₂ ≤ 4, x₁, x₂ ≥ 0. Step 1: Standard form: 2x₁ + x₂ − s₁ + a₁ = 2, x₁ + 3x₂ + s₂ = 2, x₂ + s₃ = 4, with surplus s₁, slacks s₂, s₃ and artificial a₁. Step 2: Phase I minimises W = a₁. Initial basis a₁ = 2, s₂ = 2, s₃ = 4, and W = 2 − 2x₁ − x₂ + s₁. Variable x₁ enters; the ratio test (2/2 = 1 against 2/1 = 2) makes a₁ leave. Step 3: After the pivot, x₁ = 1 − x₂/2 + s₁/2 − a₁/2, s₂ = 1 − 5x₂/2 − s₁/2 + a₁/2, s₃ = 4 − x₂, and W = a₁. W = 0, so Phase I ends with a feasible solution x₁ = 1, x₂ = 0, s₂ = 1, s₃ = 4, and a₁ is dropped. Step 4: Phase II maximises Z = 3x₁ − x₂ = 3 − 5x₂/2 + 3s₁/2. Variable s₁ has a positive coefficient and enters; only s₂ limits it (ratio 1/(1/2) = 2), so s₂ leaves, giving s₁ = 2 − 5x₂ − 2s₂. Step 5: Now x₁ = 2 − 3x₂ − s₂ and Z = 6 − 10x₂ − 3s₂. All non-basic coefficients are non-positive, so the solution is optimal. Optimal solution: x₁ = 2, x₂ = 0, maximum Z = 6.

(b)(i) Assignment problem

Costs (rows A to D, columns I to IV): A: 10, 12, 19, 11; B: 5, 10, 7, 8; C: 12, 14, 13, 11; D: 8, 15, 11, 9. Step 1: Row minima are 10, 5, 11, 8. Subtracting gives A: 0, 2, 9, 1; B: 0, 5, 2, 3; C: 1, 3, 2, 0; D: 0, 7, 3, 1. Step 2: Column minima are 0, 2, 2, 0. Subtracting gives A: 0, 0, 7, 1; B: 0, 3, 0, 3; C: 1, 1, 0, 0; D: 0, 5, 1, 1. Step 3: Four independent zeros can be chosen at A-II, B-III, C-IV and D-I (covering all zeros needs four lines), so this assignment is optimal. Assignment: A to II, B to III, C to IV, D to I, with minimum cost 12 + 7 + 11 + 8 = 38.

(b)(ii) Dual of the given primal

Let y₁, y₂, y₃, y₄ correspond to the four constraints of the maximisation problem. Rules: a ≤ constraint gives y ≥ 0, a ≥ constraint gives y ≤ 0 and an equality gives an unrestricted y. An unrestricted primal variable gives an equality dual constraint; a non-negative variable in a maximisation gives a ≥ dual constraint. Dual: Minimise W = 4y₁ + 5y₂ + 6y₃ + 7y₄ subject to 2y₁ + y₂ + 2y₃ + y₄ = 6 (x₁ unrestricted), 4y₁ − y₂ + 2y₃ + 8y₄ ≥ −5 (x₂ ≥ 0), −y₁ + 6y₂ + 4y₃ + y₄ ≥ 7 (x₃ ≥ 0), y₁ + 7y₂ + 5y₃ = 1 (x₄ unrestricted), with y₁ ≥ 0, y₂ ≤ 0, y₃ and y₄ unrestricted.

(c) Basic EOQ model and its calculation

The basic EOQ model finds the order quantity that minimises the sum of annual ordering cost and annual holding cost for one item. Assumptions: demand is known and constant; replenishment is instantaneous in a fixed lead time; no shortages are allowed; ordering cost per order and holding cost per unit per year are constant; price is constant, with no quantity discounts. Step 1: D = 12000 units per year, S = ₹100 per order, and H = 20% of ₹50 = ₹10 per unit per year. Step 2: EOQ Q = √(2DS/H) = √(2 × 12000 × 100/10) = √240000 ≈ 490 units (489·9). Step 3: Number of orders per year = D/Q = 12000/489·9 ≈ 24·5. Step 4: Time between orders = Q/D = 489·9/12000 ≈ 0·0408 year, about 14·9 days (about 15 days on a 365-day year).

How this answer will be evaluated

Framework: Operations Research / Management Science

What earns full marks: All parts solved with correct method, clear steps, and accurate final answers.

Evaluation rubric

Each sub-part is marked on its own, against the marks and word limit printed on the paper.

  1. (a) Calculate the LP optimum by the two-phase method. 15 marks

    calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation

    Must cover

    • Standard form with surplus, slack and artificial variables
    • Phase I reaches W=0 with x1=1
    • Phase II pivot on s1, Z=6-10x2-3s2
    • Optimum x1=2, x2=0, Z=6

    Loses marks

    • Using only graphical method; skipping artificial variable.

    Earns more

    • Both phases shown with pivots and the correct optimum.

    Extra mark

    • Feasible-region check with vertices (1,0),(2,0),(0.8,0.4).
  2. (b)(i) Calculate the optimal assignment for the 4x4 cost matrix. 15 marks

    calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation

    Must cover

    • Row reduction (10,5,11,8) and column reduction (0,2,2,0)
    • Four independent zeros
    • Assignment A-II, B-III, C-IV, D-I
    • Minimum cost 38

    Loses marks

    • Wrong assignment or total from original costs.

    Earns more

    • Hungarian reductions, assignment and total.

    Extra mark

    • Line-cover check.
  3. (b)(ii) Write the dual of the given primal. 5 marks

    derive— given → assumptions → stepwise derivation → result → check

    Must cover

    • Sign rules for dual variables: y1>=0, y2<=0, y3, y4 free
    • Equality dual constraints for unrestricted x1 and x4
    • Inequality dual constraints >= for x2, x3 >= 0
    • Objective 4y1+5y2+6y3+7y4 minimised

    Loses marks

    • Wrong inequality directions or missing sign conditions.

    Earns more

    • Complete dual with correct objective, constraints and sign conditions.

    Extra mark

    • Mapping each primal variable to its constraint.
  4. (c) Define the EOQ model and assumptions, and calculate EOQ, number of orders and cycle time. 15 marks

    calculate— given → formula → substitution → result with units → interpretation

    Must cover

    • EOQ model minimises ordering plus holding cost; assumptions listed
    • H=20% of 50=10
    • EOQ=sqrt(240000)=489.9 units
    • Orders about 24.5 per year; cycle about 0.0408 year (14.9 days)

    Loses marks

    • Using price in the formula; omitting assumptions.

    Earns more

    • Assumptions plus all three computed values with units.

    Extra mark

    • Total cost at EOQ equals about Rs 4899.
What "Solve" is asking you to do

Choose the method, then carry it through to a final answer. Identifying what kind of problem this is and why that method applies is the first thing marked; a correct figure arrived at invisibly earns almost nothing.

Structure that answers it

Given data and what is required → method chosen, with the reason it applies → set-up (equation, circuit, free body, trial balance) → working, step by step → answer with units and any condition of validity

Where marks are lost

Doing the middle steps mentally and writing only the result. In mathematics papers, a further loss comes from giving a decimal where the exact value in surds or fractions was wanted, or from skipping the justification a part explicitly asks for.

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