The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100. What…

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) projects a global sea level rise (SLR) of nearly one metre by AD 2100 under high-emission scenarios, posing catastrophic socio-ecological and geopolitical risks to low-lying littoral zones across the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Impact on India

With a 7,516 km coastline, NASA and GISAT satellite assessments confirm accelerated shoreline recession across vulnerable states including Gujarat, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal.

Ecologically, the fragile Sundarbans delta faces submergence and severe saltwater intrusion, devastating paddy cultivation, contaminating groundwater, and crippling estuarine fisheries. A similar salinization crisis threatens the fertile Cauvery delta in Tamil Nadu.

Economically and strategically, mega-coastal infrastructure faces chronic inundation. Critical assets at risk include the ports of Mumbai and Chennai, coastal nuclear power plants at Tarapur and Kudankulam, and strategic naval bases such as INS Kadamba at Karwar. Millions of coastal inhabitants face internal displacement, creating severe economic shocks.

Regional Impacts across the Indian Ocean

The IOR hosts some of the world's most vulnerable deltaic and island nations:

Maldives: With 80% of its landmass barely one metre above sea level, SLR poses an existential threat to its territorial sovereignty and tourism economy.

Bangladesh: Inundation of the low-lying Ganges-Brahmaputra delta risks displacing over 15 million people, generating intense cross-border climate migration pressures toward India.

Sri Lanka and Pakistan: Sri Lanka faces severe coastal erosion disrupting Colombo port logistics and coastal tourism. In Pakistan, sea ingress into the Indus delta degrades fertile land and heightens flooding risks for Karachi.

According to World Bank estimates, climate-induced coastal degradation could cost South Asia billions annually, exacerbating regional resource competition.

Way Forward

Mitigating these impacts requires strict enforcement of India’s Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) notifications, expanding the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC) for nature-based solutions like mangrove restoration, and formulating joint disaster resilience and climate-refugee frameworks through regional platforms like BIMSTEC, SAARC, and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA).