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General Studies 2024 GS Paper I 10 marks 150 words Compulsory Elaborate

GS Paper I — Q7

What is the concept of a 'demographic winter'? Is the world moving towards such a situation? Elaborate. (Answer in 150 words) 10

हिंदी में प्रश्न पढ़ें

'जनसांख्यिकीय शीत (डेमोग्राफिक विंटर)' की अवधारणा क्या है? क्या यह दुनिया ऐसी स्थिति की ओर अग्रसर है? विस्तार से बताइए। (उत्तर 150 शब्दों में दीजिए)

Q7 of the 2024 UPSC Mains General Studies GS Paper I, as printed
The question as printed in the 2024 General Studies paper
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Model answer

Written by UPSC Answer Check against this question's marking rubric, to the 150-word length. UPSC does not publish answers for Mains — this is one way to score well, not an official key.

Demographic winter means sustained sub-replacement fertility (TFR < 2.1), producing population decline, rapid ageing and economic contraction. The world is moving towards it, but unevenly, especially in advanced economies, where labour shortages and pension burdens may deepen. More than 50 countries already have TFR below replacement; UN projections show global population peaking around the mid-2080s before declining. East Asia and Europe are closest: South Korea’s TFR is 0.72, while many European states remain below 2.1. Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia are still above replacement, though fertility is falling. Drivers include urbanisation, female education, delayed marriage, high childcare costs and policy failures. India’s TFR is 2.0 (NFHS-5); southern states are below replacement, while north-central states are declining but still higher. Thus, a global demographic winter is likely, but staggered. Pro-natalist policies and immigration have shown limited success, so India must pair demographic dividend with ageing-care, productivity and social-security reforms.

What "Elaborate" is asking you to do

Give the full detailed account the question has compressed into a line — every dimension of it, with specifics. Elaborate rewards completeness and detail rather than clarification or argument: the examiner is checking whether you can fill out a topic without being told what its parts are.

Structure that answers it

State the proposition → first dimension in detail → second dimension in detail → the part the statement leaves implicit → the consolidated picture

Where marks are lost

Repeating the statement at greater length instead of adding substance. Elaborate also punishes narrowness: omitting a whole dimension costs more here than anywhere else in this family.

All UPSC directive words, compared →

How this answer will be evaluated

Approach

Framework: GS1 Society/Geography. explain: definition/context > points in order > small example > short close Full marks: Precise definition, clear drivers, specific regional examples, and economic impact analysis.

Key points expected

  • Define concept: low birth rates, aging population
  • Identify drivers: urbanization, female education, contraception
  • Cite specific regions: Japan, Europe, China
  • Analyze consequences: labor shortage, pension burden

Evaluation rubric

Each sub-part is marked on its own, against the marks and word limit printed on the paper.

  1. The answer Define demographic winter and analyze global trends toward it. 10 marks · 150 words

    explain— definition/context → points in order → small example → short close

    Must cover

    • Define concept: low birth rates, aging population
    • Identify drivers: urbanization, female education, contraception
    • Cite specific regions: Japan, Europe, China
    • Analyze consequences: labor shortage, pension burden

    Loses marks

    • Confusing with 'demographic transition' generally
    • Ignoring the 'winter' (decline) aspect
    • Vague generalities without regional examples

    Earns more

    • Mention 'dependency ratio' or 'demographic dividend' loss
    • Reference UN World Population Prospects data
    • Contrast with high-growth regions (Africa)

    Extra mark

    • Specific statistic: e.g., Japan's TFR < 1.4
    • Mention 'silver economy' or 'robotics' as mitigation

Practice this exact question

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