Statistics

UPSC Statistics 2025

All 16 questions from the 2025 Civil Services Mains Statistics paper across 2 papers — 800 marks in total. Each question comes with a detailed evaluation rubric, directive word analysis, and model answer points.

16Questions
800Total marks
2Papers
2025Exam year

Paper I

8 questions · 400 marks
Q1
50M Compulsory prove Probability theory and distributions

(a) Let E, F and G be three pairwise independent events such that P(E∩F) = 0·1 and P(F∩G) = 0·3. Prove that P(Eᶜ∪G) ≥ 11/12. 10 marks (b) If X and Y are non-negative independent r…

Q2
50M solve Random variables and distributions

(a) Let X be a continuous random variable having probability density function f(x) = (2/25)(x+2), -2 ≤ x ≤ 3; 0, otherwise. Find the cumulative distribution function of Y = X² and…

Q3
50M calculate Probability distributions and estimation theory

(a) Let probability of obtaining Head on a biased coin be 4/5 and X be the number of heads obtained in a sequence of 25 independent tosses of the coin. The same coin is tossed aga…

Q4
50M derive Sequential probability ratio test and non-parametric tests

(a) Let X₁, X₂, ... be a sequence of random variables from Bernoulli distribution with mean θ, 0<θ<1. Derive SPRT for testing H₀ : θ = θ₀ versus H₁ : θ = θ₁ = 1 – θ₀, 0<θ₀<1. Also…

Q5
50M Compulsory derive Linear regression, multivariate normal, sample statistics, sample size, experimental design

(a) For a two variable linear regression model Yᵢ = a + bXᵢ + eᵢ, where E(eᵢ) = 0, Var(eᵢ) = σ²ₑ, Cov(eᵢ, eⱼ) = 0 for i ≠ j, (i,j) ∈ {1, 2, ..., n}, if â and b̂ are least square e…

Q6
50M derive Bivariate normal, joint distributions, conditional expectation, generalized least squares

(a)(i) If (X, Y) follows bivariate normal BN(μ₁, μ₂, σ₁², σ₂², ρ), then obtain (A) E(e^X) (B) E(e^(X+Y)) (C) Var(e^X) and (D) Correlation between e^X and e^Y. 3+3+3+3=12 marks (a)…

Q7
50M analyse Latin square design and factorial experiments

(a) Analyse and interpret the following data concerning output of wheat per field obtained as a result of experiment conducted to test four varieties of wheat A, B, C and D under…

Q8
50M solve Principal components and missing value analysis

(a)(i) What are principal components ? Show that the principal components are uncorrelated. (10 marks) (a)(ii) Obtain the principal components and the amount of variation explaine…

Paper II

8 questions · 400 marks
Q1
50M Compulsory solve Statistical Quality Control and Operations Research

(a) State the significance of operating characteristic (OC) curves in control chart analysis. Obtain the general expression for the OC function corresponding to the mean (X̄) char…

Q2
50M derive Statistical Quality Control and Reliability Theory

(a) (i) What are control charts by variables and control charts by attributes? 5 marks (ii) Derive the control limits for the construction of control charts for the mean and varia…

Q3
50M solve Operations Research and Simulation

(a) A company manufactures 30 items per day. The sale of those items depends upon demand which has the following distribution : | Sale (units) | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |---…

Q4
50M solve Game Theory, Linear Programming and Quality Control

(a) Solve the game whose payoff matrix is -1 & -2 & 8 7 & 5 & -1 6 & 0 & 12 (15 marks) (b) Use the penalty (Big M) method to solve the following linear programming problem : Minim…

Q5
50M Compulsory explain Regression diagnostics and demographic statistics

(a) Explain the multicollinearity problem in a regression model. What are its consequences? State the different indicators of multicollinearity and explain. 10 marks (b) Establish…

Q6
50M calculate Demographic statistics and econometric identification

(a) On the basis of the figures given below, calculate the age-specific death rates (ASDRs) for all the age groups. Also, calculate the crude death rate (CDR) on the basis of ASDR…

Q7
50M calculate Index numbers, logistic growth model, agricultural statistics

(a) Explain the concept of index number. Calculate the Fisher's ideal index number from the following data and verify that whether it satisfies time reversal and factor reversal t…

Q8
50M describe Time series, T-score analysis, 2SLS estimation

(a) Define time series. For a moving-average process with weights {a₁, a₂, ..., aₘ} of random components {eᵢ, i = 1, 2, ...}, where eᵢ's are i.i.d. N(0, σ²), obtain the correlogra…

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